SF look like a strong play here. WAS have struggled recently, losing 4 of their last 5. SF have been rolling at home, winning 5 of their last 5.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

Terry McLaurin · against SF

The shot plays are there

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

43%

Intermediate

35%

Deep (20+)

22%

Left side

58%

Middle

14%

Right side

28%

How SF defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

22nd

Intermediate

7th

Deep (20+)

21st

Left side

29th

Middle

20th

Right side

10th

Yards after catch allowed

17th

Sack rate forced

32nd

The read

1. San Francisco rank 21st against deep balls, and 22% of McLaurin's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
2. Work the left side: 58% of his targets go that way and San Francisco rank 29th defending throws there.
3. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 20th percentile for separation and 30th for hands, and Renardo Green, Deommodore Lenoir and Jack Jones all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
4. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Mike Evans · against WAS

Best way in: intermediate throws

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

40%

Intermediate

38%

Deep (20+)

22%

Left side

38%

Middle

28%

Right side

34%

How WAS defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

28th

Intermediate

24th

Deep (20+)

22nd

Left side

18th

Middle

29th

Right side

30th

Yards after catch allowed

31st

Sack rate forced

23rd

The read

1. Washington rank 24th against intermediate throws, which make up 38% of Evans's targets.
2. Work the middle: 28% of his targets go that way and Washington rank 29th defending throws there.
3. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 2nd percentile for separation and 77th for hands, and Amik Robertson and Rasul Douglas both allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
4. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Brock Purdy · against WAS

A pass defence to exploit

Profile

How WAS defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

28th

Intermediate

24th

Deep (20+)

22nd

Left side

18th

Middle

29th

Right side

30th

Yards after catch allowed

31st

Sack rate forced

23rd

The read

1. Washington rank 30th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 28th against short throws.
2. Pressure: Washington are 23rd at getting sacks, and San Francisco are 4th at avoiding them.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 5. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Commanders have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

WAS offence

SF defence

OverallEPA per play

15th

4th

PassingEPA per dropback

17th

12th

RushingEPA per carry

22nd

6th

Third downconversion rate

29th

17th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

10th

17th

Biggest gap: rushing, where the 49ers defence has a 16-place edge.

When the 49ers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

SF offence

WAS defence

OverallEPA per play

2nd

23rd

PassingEPA per dropback

1st

25th

RushingEPA per carry

14th

5th

Third downconversion rate

1st

24th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

1st

27th

Biggest gap: pass protection, where the 49ers offence has a 26-place edge.

Form and history

Commanders this season

L22-24wk 1 at PHIL20-37wk 2 at DALW33-31wk 3 vs SEAL13-30wk 4 vs INDT27-27wk 5 vs NYG

49ers this season

W27-7wk 1 at LAW35-13wk 2 vs MIAW36-30wk 3 vs ARIW24-14wk 4 vs DENW32-29wk 5 at SEA

Last 2 meetingsWAS 0 · SF 2

27-10SF at WAS
2023-12

20-37WAS at SF
2022-12

Injury report

Commandersmodel impact -2.4

Jaylin LaneWR · Ankle	IR
Jeremy McNicholsRB · Quadriceps	IR
Leo ChenalLB · Neck	IR
Jordan MageeLB · Hamstring	IR
Laremy TunsilOL · Triceps	IR
Jer'Zhan NewtonDL · Pectoral	IR
Trey AmosDB · Ankle	IR
Marcus MariotaQB · Knee - MCL	Doubtful
Stefon DiggsWR · Hamstring	Questionable
Charles OmenihuDE · Groin	Questionable
Nick CrossDB · Illness	Questionable
Percy ButlerDB · Hamstring	Questionable

49ersmodel impact 0.0

Deebo SamuelWR · Hamstring	Out
Garret WallowLB · Hamstring	Out
Demarcus RobinsonWR · Ankle	IR
Ricky PearsallWR · Knee - PCL	IR
De'Zhaun StriblingWR · Ankle	IR
Christian KirkWR · Calf	IR
Isaac GuerendoRB · Pectoral	PUP
Jake TongesTE · Knee	IR
Nate HobbsCB · Groin	IR
Mikail KamaraDE · Knee	IR
Sam OkuayinonuDE · Foot	IR
Andrew FarmerLB · Back	IR

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.