PIT
NO
CIN
BAL
CLE
TEN
IND
MIN
MIA
NYJ
NYG
HOU
SF
ATL
TB
CAR
DEN
ARI
GB
DET
LA
LV
KC
SEA
DAL
PHI
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to NE. NE have been hot lately, winning 4 of their last 5.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How CHI defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Chicago rank 29th against deep balls, and 17% of Brown's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
- Work the middle: 16% of his targets go that way and Chicago rank 28th defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How NE defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- New England rank 17th against intermediate throws, which make up 34% of Odunze's targets.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How NE defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- New England rank 5th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is intermediate throws (17th).
- Pressure: New England are 16th at getting sacks, and Chicago are 4th at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 6. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Patriots have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)NE offenceCHI defenceBiggest gap: third down, where the Bears defence has a 10-place edge.
When the Bears have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)CHI offenceNE defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Bears offence has a 10-place edge.
Form and history
Patriots this season
Bears this season19-3NE at CHI2024-11
33-14CHI at NE2022-10
Injury report
Patriotsmodel impact -2.0| Carlton Davis IIICB · Neck | Out |
| Channing CanadaCB · Hamstring | Out |
| Alijah Vera-TuckerOL · Hamstring | Out |
| Karon PruntyDB · Hamstring | Out |
| Ben BrownOG · Knee | Out |
| Mack HollinsWR · Calf | IR |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Shoulder | IR |
| Myles MontgomeryRB | IR |
| Reggie GilliamRB · Ankle | IR |
| Julian HillTE · Knee | IR |
| Quintayvious HutchinsDE · Knee | IR |
| Khalil JacobsLB | IR |
Bearsmodel impact -2.4| Kyle MonangaiRB · Toe | Out |
| Jack SanbornLB · Concussion | Out |
| Anthony Johnson Jr.DB | Out |
| Brittain BrownRB | IR |
| Nikola KalinicTE · Knee | IR |
| Hayden LargeTE | IR |
| Dayo OdeyingboDE · Quadriceps | IR |
| Tony Fields IILB | IR |
| Nephi SewellLB · Concussion | IR |
| Braxton JonesOL · Knee | IR |
| Coby BryantDB · Knee | IR |
| T.J. EdwardsLB · Hamstring | Doubtful |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
| Player | Market | Line | Price | Market over | Last 10 games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb WilliamsCHI | Passing yards | 246.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 30% | |
| Drake MayeNE | Passing yards | 247.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 20% | |
| Caleb WilliamsCHIrole up | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.65 | 57% | 40% | |
| Drake MayeNErole up | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.81 | 52% | 20% | |
| Caleb WilliamsCHI | Rushing yards | 21.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 60% | |
| Corey KinerNE | Rushing yards | 13.5 | 1.85 | 51% | 50% | |
| D'Andre SwiftCHI | Rushing yards | 61.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 30% | |
| Drake MayeNE | Rushing yards | 30.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 40% | |
| Rhamondre StevensonNErole up | Rushing yards | 41.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 60% | |
| Roschon JohnsonCHIrole up | Rushing yards | 26.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 10% | |
| TreVeyon HendersonNE | Rushing yards | 25.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 50% | |
| A.J. BrownNErole up | Receiving yards | 70.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 40% | |
| Cole KmetCHIrole up | Receiving yards | 9.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 80% | |
| Colston LovelandCHI | Receiving yards | 45.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 50% | |
| D'Andre SwiftCHIrole up | Receiving yards | 18.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 50% | |
| DeMario DouglasNE | Receiving yards | 38.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 40% | |
| Efton Chism IIINE | Receiving yards | 18.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 20% | |
| Eli RaridonNE | Receiving yards | 14.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 60% | |
| Hunter HenryNErole up | Receiving yards | 35.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 70% | |
| Kalif RaymondCHIrole up | Receiving yards | 25.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 50% | |
| Kyle WilliamsNE | Receiving yards | 19.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 30% | |
| Luther Burden IIICHI | Receiving yards | 58.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 0% | |
| Rhamondre StevensonNErole up | Receiving yards | 18.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 20% | |
| Rome OdunzeCHI | Receiving yards | 44.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 30% | |
| Roschon JohnsonCHIrole up | Receiving yards | 7.5 | 1.92 | 49% | 50% | |
| TreVeyon HendersonNE | Receiving yards | 3.5 | 1.84 | 51% | 100% | |
| A.J. BrownNErole up | Receptions | 5.5 | 2.05 | 46% | 40% | |
| Cole KmetCHIrole up | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.68 | 35% | 80% | |
| Colston LovelandCHI | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.62 | 58% | 50% | |
| D'Andre SwiftCHI | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.85 | 51% | 40% | |
| DeMario DouglasNE | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.03 | 46% | 70% | |
| Efton Chism IIINE | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.73 | 55% | 20% | |
| Eli RaridonNE | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.20 | 43% | 70% | |
| Hunter HenryNE | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.34 | 40% | 80% | |
| Kalif RaymondCHIrole up | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.85 | 51% | 40% | |
| Kyle WilliamsNE | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.42 | 39% | 40% | |
| Luther Burden IIICHI | Receptions | 4.5 | 1.78 | 53% | 0% | |
| Rhamondre StevensonNErole up | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.80 | 52% | 40% | |
| Rome OdunzeCHI | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.23 | 42% | 50% | |
| Roschon JohnsonCHI | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.22 | 42% | 30% |
"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors NE (57%) by 0.9 points.