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MINJacksonville at Baltimore: what decides it
JAX at BAL, Thursday 8:15pm ET. Model JAX 74%, market JAX 80%.
Week 9, Thursday 8:15pm ET. Jacksonville visit Baltimore. The matchup numbers first, then the model and the market — understand the game before you bet on it.
How they have played so far
| JAX | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Offence EPA/play | +0.16 (3rd) | +0.02 (14th) |
| Defence EPA/play allowed | -0.10 (4th) | +0.01 (18th) |
| Offence success rate | 48% (7th) | 46% (12th) |
| Third-down conversion | 49% (4th) | 40% (14th) |
| Pressure rate allowed | 20% (9th) | 21% (14th) |
| Pressure rate generated | 24% (9th) | 21% (20th) |
| Red-zone TD rate | 77% (2nd) | 65% (13th) |
Season to date, weeks 1-8 (rank of 32 in brackets)
Where it gets decided
Jacksonville's offence (3rd in EPA per play) meets a Baltimore defence ranked 18th — that's the mismatch to watch. Jacksonville's protection (9th in pressure allowed) should hold up against Baltimore's rush (20th).
A caveat worth keeping: that's 8 games of evidence per team. Early-season ranks move a lot.
Matchups to watch
Parker Washington against Baltimore: the shot plays are there. Baltimore rank 30th against deep balls, and 25% of Washington's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%). Work the left side: 51% of his targets go that way and Baltimore rank 22nd defending throws there.
Zay Flowers against Jacksonville: no obvious soft spot. Jacksonville are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Flowers's likeliest route is deep balls (16% of his targets), where they rank 14th. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 84th percentile for separation and 18th for hands, and Jarrian Jones, Greg Newsome II and Jourdan Lewis all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
Lamar Jackson against Jacksonville: a tough day in the air. Jacksonville rank 3rd in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is deep balls (14th). Pressure: Jacksonville are 24th at getting sacks, and Baltimore are 26th at avoiding them.
These are the defence's profiles against each player's usual targets, not confirmed one-on-ones: free data doesn't show who covers whom.
The model and the market
The model has Jacksonville at 74% (medium confidence), with a line of JAX by 6.2. The market agrees on the side at 80% (JAX by 10). That's one input, not a tip: across 2026 the market has called more winners than we have, so read the matchup below before you lean either way.
BAL starting QB Tyler Huntley is Doubtful
Sources: nflverse play-by-play; PFR advanced passing; 4th & Data run 2026-11-04T09-16-38Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
