BAL
CIN
ATL
CLE
NO
DAL
IND
DET
MIA
WAS
NYG
PHI
NYJ
HOU
LV
GB
NE
TB
CHI
BUF
MIN
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to DEN. DEN have been hot lately, winning 4 of their last 5.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How CAR defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Carolina rank 25th against intermediate throws, which make up 31% of Waddle's targets.
- Don't force deep balls: they've been Waddle's worst return (-0.30 EPA a target), and Carolina are 12th there.
- Work the left side: 41% of his targets go that way and Carolina rank 26th defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How DEN defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Denver are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. McMillan's likeliest route is intermediate throws (37% of his targets), where they rank 8th.
- Don't force short throws: they've been McMillan's worst return (-0.07 EPA a target), and Denver are 13th there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 41st percentile for separation and 34th for hands, and Riley Moss, Ja'Quan McMillian, Patrick Surtain II and Kris Abrams-Draine all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How DEN defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Denver rank 6th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is short throws (13th).
- Pressure: Denver are 6th at getting sacks, and Carolina are 23rd at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 8. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Broncos have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)DEN offenceCAR defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Broncos offence has a 24-place edge.
When the Panthers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)CAR offenceDEN defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Panthers offence has a 14-place edge.
Form and history
Broncos this season
10-31wk 1 at KCW
20-13wk 2 vs JAXW
30-26wk 3 vs LAL
14-24wk 4 at SFW
23-17wk 5 at LACW
17-14wk 6 vs SEAW
30-16wk 7 at ARIW28-24wk 8 vs KCPanthers this season14-28CAR at DEN2024-10
10-23DEN at CAR2022-11
Injury report
Broncosmodel impact 0.0| Pat BryantWR · Ankle | IR |
| Tyler BadieRB · Thumb | IR |
| RJ HarveyRB · Knee | IR |
| Caleb LohnerTE · Lower Body | IR |
| Jonah EllissDE · Ankle | IR |
| Matt HenningsenDE · Achilles | IR |
| Levelle BaileyLB · Leg | IR |
| Nick GargiuloOL · Knee | PUP |
| Michael DeiterOL · Quadriceps | IR |
| Frank CrumOT | IR |
| Brandon JonesDB · Hamstring | Questionable |
| Talanoa HufangaDB · Ankle | Questionable |
Panthersmodel impact 0.0| Chris Brazzell IIWR · Knee | IR |
| Xavier LegetteWR · Knee | IR |
| Jonathon BrooksRB · Abdomen | IR |
| Mike JacksonCB · Groin | IR |
| Jaycee HornCB · Quadriceps | IR |
| Thomas IncoomLB · Calf | IR |
| Cam JacksonDT · Knee | IR |
| Akayleb EvansDB · Triceps | IR |
| Taylor MotonT · Lower Leg | IR |
| Ikem EkwonuT · Knee | PUP |
| Brady ChristensenT · Hamstring | IR |
| Nic ScourtonDL · Knee - ACL | IR |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
| Player | Market | Line | Price | Market over | Last 10 games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo NixDEN | Passing yards | 210.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 80% | |
| Bryce YoungCARrole up | Passing yards | 236.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 30% | |
| Bo NixDENrole up | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 2.04 | 46% | 70% | |
| Bryce YoungCARrole up | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 2.04 | 46% | 40% | |
| Bo NixDEN | Rushing yards | 14.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 60% | |
| Bryce YoungCARrole up | Rushing yards | 7.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 90% | |
| Chuba HubbardCAR | Rushing yards | 71.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 50% | |
| Chuba HubbardCAR | Receiving yards | 15.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 20% | |
| Courtland SuttonDENrole up | Receiving yards | 35.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 90% | |
| Darren WallerCAR | Receiving yards | 18.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 90% | |
| Evan EngramDEN | Receiving yards | 18.5 | 1.86 | 51% | 90% | |
| Jalen CokerCAR | Receiving yards | 51.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 40% | |
| Jaylen WaddleDEN | Receiving yards | 45.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 40% | |
| Marvin Mims Jr.DEN | Receiving yards | 15.5 | 1.86 | 51% | 30% | |
| Tetairoa McMillanCAR | Receiving yards | 68.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 20% | |
| Tommy TrembleCARrole up | Receiving yards | 18.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 50% | |
| Troy FranklinDENrole up | Receiving yards | 10.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 70% | |
| Chuba HubbardCARrole up | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.73 | 54% | 50% | |
| Courtland SuttonDEN | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.04 | 46% | 90% | |
| Darren WallerCAR | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.66 | 57% | 90% | |
| Evan EngramDEN | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.57 | 60% | 90% | |
| Jalen CokerCARrole up | Receptions | 4.5 | 1.83 | 51% | 10% | |
| Jaylen WaddleDEN | Receptions | 4.5 | 2.07 | 46% | 20% | |
| Marvin Mims Jr.DEN | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.72 | 55% | 40% | |
| Tetairoa McMillanCAR | Receptions | 5.5 | 2.07 | 46% | 0% | |
| Tommy TrembleCAR | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.37 | 40% | 40% | |
| Troy FranklinDEN | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.47 | 38% | 70% |
"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors DEN (62%) by 3.3 points.