JAX
CIN
ATL
CLE
NO
DAL
IND
DEN
CAR
MIA
WAS
NYG
PHI
NYJ
KC
SF
ARI
SEA
GB
TB
CHI
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to BUF. BUF have been hot lately, winning 4 of their last 5. MIN have been rolling at home, winning 4 of their last 5.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How MIN defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Minnesota rank 9th against short throws and 29th for yards after the catch allowed. Shakir takes 81% of his targets short and is 84th percentile after the catch.
- Don't force intermediate throws: they've been Shakir's worst return (-0.06 EPA a target), and Minnesota are 1st there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How BUF defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Buffalo rank 21st against intermediate throws, which make up 36% of Jefferson's targets.
- Don't force deep balls: they've been Jefferson's worst return (-0.35 EPA a target), and Buffalo are 19th there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How MIN defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Minnesota rank 1st in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is deep balls (18th).
- Pressure: Minnesota are 1st at getting sacks, and Buffalo are 19th at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 8. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Bills have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)BUF offenceMIN defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Vikings defence has a 10-place edge.
When the Vikings have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)MIN offenceBUF defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Bills defence has a 11-place edge.
Form and history
Bills this season
36-31wk 1 at HOUW
41-31wk 2 vs DETW
24-16wk 3 vs LACL
26-29wk 4 vs NEW
37-34wk 5 at LAW
33-30wk 6 at LVW
36-10wk 8 vs BALVikings this season33-30MIN at BUF2022-11
Injury report
Billsmodel impact 0.0| Tyrell ShaversWR · Knee - ACL | PUP |
| Dorian StrongCB · Neck | PUP |
| Zane DurantDT | IR |
| Jordan HancockDB · Hamstring | IR |
| DJ MooreWR | Questionable |
| Joshua PalmerWR · Hamstring | Questionable |
| Greg GainesDT · Calf | Questionable |
| Dee AlfordDB · Ankle | Questionable |
| Spencer BrownOT · Back | Questionable |
Vikingsmodel impact -0.7| Michael BriscoeWR | Out |
| Josh OliverTE · Biceps | IR |
| Donovan JacksonOL · Knee - Meniscus | IR |
| Tyler BattyDL · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Nick SamacC · Knee | IR |
| Jamal AdamsSS · Knee | IR |
| Kyler MurrayQB · Hamstring | Questionable |
| Christian DarrisawT · Shoulder | Questionable |
| Theo JacksonDB · Quadriceps | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors BUF (58%) by 2.5 points.