This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to NO. NO have been struggling, dropping 4 of their last 5.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

Harold Fannin Jr. · against NO

The shot plays are there

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

78%

Intermediate

14%

Deep (20+)

8%

Left side

40%

Middle

26%

Right side

34%

How NO defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

18th

Intermediate

4th

Deep (20+)

28th

Left side

17th

Middle

18th

Right side

11th

Yards after catch allowed

14th

Sack rate forced

3rd

The read

1. New Orleans rank 28th against deep balls, and 8% of Fannin's targets travel 20+ yards (the average TE is at 6%).
2. Don't force short throws: they've been Fannin's worst return (-0.06 EPA a target), and New Orleans are 18th there.
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Chris Olave · against CLE

A tough draw

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

48%

Intermediate

28%

Deep (20+)

24%

Left side

44%

Middle

15%

Right side

40%

How CLE defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

7th

Intermediate

9th

Deep (20+)

2nd

Left side

1st

Middle

23rd

Right side

5th

Yards after catch allowed

21st

Sack rate forced

2nd

The read

1. Cleveland are top ten against short, intermediate and deep throws over their last 17 games (7th, 9th, 2nd). There's no obvious soft spot for Olave to lean on.
2. Work the middle: 15% of his targets go that way and Cleveland rank 23rd defending throws there.
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Tyler Shough · against CLE

A tough day in the air

Profile

How CLE defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

7th

Intermediate

9th

Deep (20+)

2nd

Left side

1st

Middle

23rd

Right side

5th

Yards after catch allowed

21st

Sack rate forced

2nd

The read

1. Cleveland rank 4th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is intermediate throws (9th).
2. Pressure: Cleveland are 2nd at getting sacks, and New Orleans are 22nd at avoiding them.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 8. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Browns have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

CLE offence

NO defence

OverallEPA per play

25th

27th

PassingEPA per dropback

25th

23rd

RushingEPA per carry

27th

31st

Third downconversion rate

30th

30th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

32nd

11th

Biggest gap: pass protection, where the Saints defence has a 21-place edge.

When the Saints have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

NO offence

CLE defence

OverallEPA per play

22nd

14th

PassingEPA per dropback

20th

10th

RushingEPA per carry

26th

27th

Third downconversion rate

8th

12th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

10th

10th

Biggest gap: passing, where the Browns defence has a 10-place edge.

Form and history

Browns this season

L10-34wk 1 at JAXW23-19wk 2 at TBW21-18wk 3 vs CARW27-24wk 4 vs PITL12-17wk 5 at NYJW13-10wk 6 vs BALW27-24wk 7 at TENL6-27wk 8 at PIT

Saints this season

L30-31wk 1 at DETW24-17wk 2 at BALL27-35wk 3 vs LVL24-45wk 4 vs ATLL13-23wk 5 vs MINW34-27wk 6 at NYGL10-16wk 7 vs PIT

Last 2 meetingsCLE 0 · NO 2

14-35CLE at NO
2024-11

17-10NO at CLE
2022-12

Injury report

Brownsmodel impact 0.0

Nathaniel WatsonLB · Knee	Out
Raheim SandersRB · Hip	IR
Joe RoyerTE · Personal	PUP
Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLB · Neck	PUP
Teven JenkinsOL · Back	IR
Kalia DavisDL · Quadriceps	IR
Alex WrightDL · Achilles	IR
Damarri MathisDB	IR
Bub MeansWR · Knee	Questionable

Saintsmodel impact 0.0

Mason TiptonWR · Groin	PUP
Jordyn TysonWR · Hamstring	IR
Travis Etienne Jr.RB · Hamstring	IR
Ty ChandlerRB · Knee	IR
Moliki MatavaoTE · Knee	IR
Rejzohn WrightCB · Hip	IR
Bryan BreseeDT · Knee - ACL	IR
Kelvin Banks Jr.OL · Ankle	IR
Dillon RadunzOL · Knee - ACL	IR
Nick SaldiveriOL · Knee	PUP
CJ DonaldsonRB · Shoulder	Questionable
Nathan ShepherdDT · Illness	Questionable

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.