Falcons at Steelers: week 1

Falcons

lost by 7

Final · week 1

13–20

at Acrisure Stadium · Sun 13 Sept

Steelers

won by 7

How the game swung

The Steelers' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

■ Steelers ahead■ Falcons ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q4 14:16 - Atlanta turnover by C.Rush (-24% WPA) flipped the script.

Q1 2:48 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming

A.Rodgers EPA -5.1

(Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren to PIT 27 for no gain (21-M.Hughes, 99-C.Thomas). FUMBLES (99-C.Thomas), RECOVERED by ATL-0-D.Deablo at PIT 25.

+17%win chance to ATL

Q2 12:17 · Turnover

C.Rush EPA -4.8

(Shotgun) 13-C.Rush pass deep middle intended for 4-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Brisker at ATL 41. 3-J.Brisker pushed ob at ATL 31 for 10 yards (65-M.Bergeron).

+18%win chance to PIT

Q2 1:06 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming

C.Johnston EPA -1.8

(Field Goal formation) 19-C.Johnston pass incomplete short left [28-M.Ford].

+7%win chance to ATL

Q3 4:46 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming

A.Rodgers EPA -2.8

(Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 4-D.Metcalf (26-C.Henderson).

+7%win chance to ATL

Q4 14:16 · Turnover

C.Rush EPA -8.3

(Shotgun) 13-C.Rush pass short right intended for 7-Bi.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 90-T.Watt at ATL 35. 90-T.Watt for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+24%win chance to PIT

Every drive

Falcons drive left to right, Steelers right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Punt · 3 pl · 4 yds

Punt · 3 pl · -1 yds

FG · 7 pl · 43 yds

Punt · 7 pl · 27 yds

Turnover · 4 pl · 12 yds

TD · 3 pl · 25 yds

FG · 7 pl · 19 yds

Turnover · 1 pl · 0 yds

TD · 4 pl · 31 yds

Punt · 5 pl · 12 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 2 yds

Missed FG · 5 pl · 19 yds

Downs · 7 pl · 22 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 12 yds

Half · 3 pl · 12 yds

Missed FG · 8 pl · 25 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 4 yds

Punt · 6 pl · 26 yds

Downs · 5 pl · 40 yds

FG · 4 pl · 20 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 7 yds

Def TD · 3 pl · 20 yds

FG · 5 pl · 42 yds

Missed FG · 5 pl · 22 yds

Punt · 4 pl · 11 yds

Half · 7 pl · 49 yds

ATL goal2040504020PIT goal

Side by side

238

Total yards

267

-0.32

EPA per play

-0.30

39%

Success rate

33%

First downs

Sacks taken

Turnovers

2/12

Third downs

3/12

Falcons leaders

PassingC.Rush12/22 · 143 yds · 1 TD · 2 INT

RushingBi.Robinson21 car · 83 yds

ReceivingBi.Robinson8/10 · 90 yds

Steelers leaders

PassingA.Rodgers24/40 · 221 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT

RushingJ.Warren10 car · 46 yds

ReceivingM.Pittman3/3 · 58 yds

Scoring

Q1 08:34	9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.	0-3
Q1 01:19	(Shotgun) 13-C.Rush pass short right to 7-Bi.Robinson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	6-3
Q1 01:13	6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.	7-3
Q2 12:31	9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.	7-6
Q2 10:44	(Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	7-12
Q2 10:39	9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.	7-13
Q3 01:55	6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.	10-13
Q4 14:16	(Shotgun) 13-C.Rush pass short right intended for 7-Bi.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 90-T.Watt at ATL 35. 90-T.Watt for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	10-19
Q4 14:05	9-C.Boswell extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.	10-20
Q4 10:39	6-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.	13-20

How the model did

Right

Before kickoff the model had PIT 62%, the market PIT 71%. It finished ATL 13, PIT 20.

Pick published 13 Sept, 10:05 UK, before kickoff.