NE
CHI
PIT
NO
CIN
BAL
CLE
TEN
IND
MIN
MIA
NYJ
NYG
HOU
SF
ATL
TB
CAR
DEN
GB
DET
LV
KC
SEA
DAL
PHIArizona 18, the Rams 16: what nobody priced
We had the Rams at 71%. The market had the Rams by 12.5. Arizona won 18-16 at SoFi Stadium.
We had the Rams at 71%. The market had the Rams by 12.5. Arizona won 18-16 at SoFi Stadium. We were wrong, and so was the market.
How it swung
3. With 52 seconds left, Matthew Stafford found Colby Parkinson for a 5-yard touchdown, a 15-point swing in win probability towards the Rams.
4. With 47 seconds left, Jacoby Brissett found Jalen Brooks for 21 yards, plus 15 more for unnecessary roughness, a 24-point swing in win probability towards Arizona.
5. With 3 seconds left, Chad Ryland kicked a 43-yard field goal, a 40-point swing in win probability towards Arizona.
Who won the matchups
Trey McBride against the Rams: the Rams won it. McBride held to 53 yards on 9 targets, against his usual 75.
Puka Nacua against Arizona: Even. Nacua had 80 yards on 7 targets, close to his usual 108.
Matthew Stafford against Arizona: Arizona won it. Stafford managed -0.18 EPA a dropback, well below his usual +0.21.
Nothing in the pre-game numbers pointed this way. Some games are just misses, and we grade those too.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play 2026; NFL injury report, week 6; our published pre-kickoff run 2026-10-18T09-12-36Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
