SEA
DEN
HOU
JAX
BAL
CLE
CAR
PHI
CHI
ATL
NO
NYG
NYJ
NE
PIT
TB
TEN
IND
BUF
LV
LAC
KC
DAL
GB
WAS
SF
LA look like the play here. ARI have struggled recently, losing 4 of their last 5.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How LA defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- the Rams are top ten against short, intermediate and deep throws over their last 17 games (7th, 6th, 3rd). There's no obvious soft spot for McBride to lean on.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 15th percentile for separation and 78th for hands, and Emmanuel Forbes, Cobie Durant, Darious Williams and Josh Wallace all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How ARI defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Arizona rank 32nd against short throws and 25th for yards after the catch allowed. Nacua takes 62% of his targets short and is 88th percentile after the catch.
- Work the right side: 47% of his targets go that way and Arizona rank 32nd defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How ARI defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Arizona rank 32nd in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 32nd against short throws.
- Pressure: Arizona are 24th at getting sacks, and the Rams are 1st at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 5. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Cardinals have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)ARI offenceLA defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Cardinals offence has a 12-place edge.
When the Rams have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)LA offenceARI defenceBiggest gap: overall, where the Rams offence has a 20-place edge.
Form and history
Cardinals this season
Rams this season20-37ARI at LA2026-01
45-17LA at ARI2025-12
9-13ARI at LA2024-12
10-41LA at ARI2024-09
37-14LA at ARI2023-11
Injury report
Cardinalsmodel impact -0.5| Wydett WilliamsDB · Concussion | Out |
| Trey BensonRB · Knee | IR |
| James ConnerRB · Foot | IR |
| Hunter LongTE · Knee | IR |
| Tip ReimanTE · Ankle | PUP |
| Jameson GeersTE | IR |
| Kaleb ProctorDT · Knee - Meniscus | IR |
| Paris JohnsonOL · Biceps | IR |
| Isaiah AdamsOL · Ankle | IR |
| Will JohnsonDB · Neck | IR |
| Chase BisontisG · Knee - MCL | IR |
| Zach CarterDL · Knee | IR |
Ramsmodel impact 0.0No players on the injury report.
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors LA (69%) by 7.9 points.