NE
CHI
NO
CIN
BAL
CLE
TEN
IND
MIN
MIA
NYJ
NYG
HOU
SF
ATL
CAR
DEN
ARI
GB
DET
LA
LV
KC
SEA
DAL
PHIPittsburgh 26, Tampa Bay 19: what we missed
We had Tampa Bay at 50%. The market had Pittsburgh by 2.5. Pittsburgh won 26-19 at Raymond James Stadium. Tampa Bay started Jalon Daniels rather than Baker Mayfield (Baker Mayfield was ruled Out).
We had Tampa Bay at 50%. The market had Pittsburgh by 2.5. Pittsburgh won 26-19 at Raymond James Stadium. Our lean didn't hold, though at 50% that was close to a coin flip. The market leaned the other way.
How it swung
1. With 1:46 left, Jamel Dean intercepted Jalon Daniels's short throw for Emeka Egbuka, a 45-point swing in win probability towards Pittsburgh.
2. With 13 seconds left, Chase McLaughlin kicked a 53-yard field goal, a 26-point swing in win probability towards Tampa Bay.
3. In overtime (9:11), Aaron Rodgers found DK Metcalf for 20 yards, a 25-point swing in win probability towards Pittsburgh.
Who played quarterback
Tampa Bay started Jalon Daniels rather than Baker Mayfield (Baker Mayfield was ruled Out).
Who won the matchups
DK Metcalf against Tampa Bay: Metcalf won it. 93 yards on 15 targets, against his usual 55.
T.J. Watt against Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay won it. Watt didn't register a sack or a QB hit.
Emeka Egbuka against Pittsburgh: Egbuka won it. 48 yards on 16 targets, above his usual 40.
We had it close to a coin flip (50%), and it went the other way. Some games are just misses, and we grade those too.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play 2026; NFL injury report, week 6; our published pre-kickoff run 2026-10-18T09-12-36Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
