This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to TB. TB have been struggling, dropping 4 of their last 5.

Quarterback watch: TB starting QB Baker Mayfield is Doubtful

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

DK Metcalf · against TB

No obvious soft spot

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

55%

Intermediate

21%

Deep (20+)

24%

Left side

41%

Middle

19%

Right side

39%

How TB defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

17th

Intermediate

19th

Deep (20+)

12th

Left side

14th

Middle

17th

Right side

15th

Yards after catch allowed

30th

Sack rate forced

27th

The read

1. Tampa Bay are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Metcalf's likeliest route is deep balls (24% of his targets), where they rank 12th.
2. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 25th percentile for separation and 36th for hands, and Zyon McCollum allows fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

T.J. Watt · against TB

A line to get after

Profile

The read

1. Tampa Bay give up a sack on 7.2% of dropbacks over their last 17 games, 20th of 32 (a line that leaks).
2. Watt is 72nd percentile for pressures and 83rd for sacks. This is a week to expect him in the backfield.

Emeka Egbuka · against PIT

Best way in: intermediate throws

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

46%

Intermediate

39%

Deep (20+)

16%

Left side

42%

Middle

25%

Right side

34%

How PIT defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

11th

Intermediate

27th

Deep (20+)

27th

Left side

19th

Middle

12th

Right side

22nd

Yards after catch allowed

23rd

Sack rate forced

18th

The read

1. Pittsburgh rank 27th against intermediate throws, which make up 39% of Egbuka's targets.
2. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 38th percentile for separation and 17th for hands, and Jalen Ramsey and Joey Porter Jr. both allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 5. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Steelers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

PIT offence

TB defence

OverallEPA per play

21st

7th

PassingEPA per dropback

26th

16th

RushingEPA per carry

3rd

4th

Third downconversion rate

28th

8th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

21st

28th

Biggest gap: third down, where the Buccaneers defence has a 20-place edge.

When the Buccaneers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

TB offence

PIT defence

OverallEPA per play

27th

18th

PassingEPA per dropback

29th

18th

RushingEPA per carry

9th

18th

Third downconversion rate

19th

7th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

29th

14th

Biggest gap: pass protection, where the Steelers defence has a 15-place edge.

Form and history

Steelers this season

W20-13wk 1 vs ATLL3-20wk 2 at NEW30-27wk 3 vs CINL24-27wk 4 at CLEW34-22wk 5 vs IND

Buccaneers this season

L27-33wk 1 at CINL19-23wk 2 vs CLEL16-23wk 3 vs MINL14-17wk 4 vs GBW24-16wk 5 at DAL

Last 1 meetingsPIT 1 · TB 0

18-20TB at PIT
2022-10

Injury report

Steelersmodel impact 0.0

Roman WilsonWR · Finger	Out
Ben SkowronekWR · Leg	Out
Max HurlemanCB	Out
Michael PittmanWR · Foot	IR
Donte KentCB	PUP
Logan LeeDL	IR
Gennings DunkerOT · Knee	IR
Derrick HarmonDL · Foot	IR
DeShon ElliottDB	IR
Jack DriscollT	IR
Rico DowdleRB · Toe	Questionable
Jamel DeanCB · Ankle	Questionable

Buccaneersmodel impact -2.4

Jalen McMillanWR · Knee - PCL	IR
David SillsWR	IR
Josh HayesCB · Knee	IR
Mohamed KamaraDL · Knee	IR
Baker MayfieldQB · Thumb	Doubtful
Sean TuckerRB · Quadriceps	Questionable
SirVocea DennisLB · Ankle	Questionable
Ayden GarnesDB · Ankle	Questionable
Benjamin MorrisonDB · Quadriceps	Questionable
Antoine WinfieldDB · Ribs	Questionable

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.