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NO
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DAL
PHIWashington at San Francisco: what decides it
WAS at SF, Monday 8:15pm ET. Model SF 85%, market SF 78%.
Week 6, Monday 8:15pm ET. Washington visit San Francisco. The matchup numbers first, then the model and the market — understand the game before you bet on it.
How they have played so far
| WAS | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| Offence EPA/play | -0.02 (15th) | +0.21 (2nd) |
| Defence EPA/play allowed | +0.04 (23rd) | -0.07 (4th) |
| Offence success rate | 40% (27th) | 53% (1st) |
| Third-down conversion | 32% (29th) | 52% (2nd) |
| Pressure rate allowed | 26% (27th) | 18% (3rd) |
| Pressure rate generated | 25% (11th) | 27% (7th) |
| Red-zone TD rate | 67% (10th) | 86% (1st) |
Season to date, weeks 1-5 (rank of 32 in brackets)
Where it gets decided
San Francisco's offence (2nd in EPA per play) meets a Washington defence ranked 23rd — that's the mismatch to watch. San Francisco's pass rush (7th in pressure generated) against a Washington line ranked 27th in pressure allowed is the matchup inside the matchup.
A caveat worth keeping: that's 5 games of evidence per team. Early-season ranks move a lot.
Matchups to watch
Terry McLaurin against San Francisco: the shot plays are there. San Francisco rank 21st against deep balls, and 22% of McLaurin's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%). Work the left side: 58% of his targets go that way and San Francisco rank 29th defending throws there.
Mike Evans against Washington: best way in: intermediate throws. Washington rank 24th against intermediate throws, which make up 38% of Evans's targets. Work the middle: 28% of his targets go that way and Washington rank 29th defending throws there.
Brock Purdy against Washington: a pass defence to exploit. Washington rank 30th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 28th against short throws. Pressure: Washington are 23rd at getting sacks, and San Francisco are 4th at avoiding them.
These are the defence's profiles against each player's usual targets, not confirmed one-on-ones: free data doesn't show who covers whom.
The model and the market
The model has San Francisco at 85% (high confidence), with a line of SF by 14.2. The market agrees on the side at 78% (SF by 7.5). That's one input, not a tip: across 2026 the market has called more winners than we have, so read the matchup below before you lean either way.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play; PFR advanced passing; 4th & Data run 2026-10-15T09-10-45Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.