CIN
ATL
CLE
NO
DAL
IND
DEN
CAR
DET
MIA
LA
WAS
NYG
PHI
NYJ
KC
HOU
LAC
LV
SF
ARI
SEA
GB
NE
TB
CHI
BUF
MINJacksonville 33, Baltimore 10: how it played out
We had Jacksonville at 71%. The market had Jacksonville by 8.5. Jacksonville won 33-10 at M&T Bank Stadium. Baltimore started Joe Fagnano rather than Tyler Huntley (Tyler Huntley was ruled Out).
We had Jacksonville at 71%. The market had Jacksonville by 8.5. Jacksonville won 33-10 at M&T Bank Stadium. We were right, and so was the market.
How it swung
1. In the 1st quarter (14:17), Trevor Lawrence found Nate Boerkircher for 52 yards, a 14-point swing in win probability towards Jacksonville.
2. In the 2nd quarter (4:37), Derrick Henry ran for 4 yards, a 7-point swing in win probability towards Baltimore.
3. In the 2nd quarter (1:06), Trevor Lawrence found Parker Washington for a 50-yard touchdown, a 11-point swing in win probability towards Jacksonville.
Who played quarterback
Baltimore started Joe Fagnano rather than Tyler Huntley (Tyler Huntley was ruled Out). Baltimore also used Derrick Henry (1 dropback) at quarterback.
Who won the matchups
Parker Washington against Baltimore: Even. Washington had 61 yards on 7 targets, close to his usual 66.
Zay Flowers against Jacksonville: Jacksonville won it. Flowers held to 6 yards on 6 targets, against his usual 78.
The model's call held up, though Tyler Huntley was listed Out, but our model's check for a missing starting quarterback didn't register it, a bug we're fixing. One right pick isn't a trend; the full record is on the Record page.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play 2026; NFL injury report, week 9; our published pre-kickoff run 2026-11-05T09-02-50Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
