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Jaylen Waddle17
Broncos · WR

Jaylen Waddle

Denver Broncos#175 yrs expAlabama70 · 182 lb
83Form
90Established
High-end starter#39 of 144 wide receivers
Games17last 17
Targets1086.4 a game
Catches6560% caught
Yards92955 a game
TDs5
Skill profile · last 17 games · vs 144 wide receivers

Best at volume, less so hands

Each axis is a percentile against every qualified wide receiver over the same window. The dashed white shape is the position average; the gold ring marks elite (90th percentile).

Volume: 86th percentileDepth: 75th percentileSeparation: 72th percentileAfter the catch: 45th percentileHands: 43th percentileEfficiency: 58th percentileVolume86thDepth75thSeparation72ndAfter the catch45thHands43rdEfficiency58th
WaddlePosition averageElite, 90th
VolumeAbove avgshare of team targets
23.7%86th pct
DepthAbove avgavg depth of target
13.2 yd75th pct
SeparationAbove avgyards of separation at the catch
3.09 yd72nd pct
After the catchYAC over expected per catch
+0.2 yd45th pct
Handsdrop rate
4.6% drops43rd pct
EfficiencyEPA per target
+0.2758th pct
F&D score · current form, last 17 games

83: high-end starter

One number for how well Waddle has actually played lately, not a talent rating. 70% is the skill profile, weighted towards efficiency; the rest is how steady his games are and whether he still produces against the better defences. Ranked against every qualified wide receiver; 99 is the best. Over the last three seasons he scores 90 (#19 of 121).

Contributionthe skill profile, efficiency-weighted
64
Consistencyhow steady game to game
54
Holds up vs good Doutput against the tougher half
18
Trend, last 6 gamesCooling
Schedule facedTough

Trend and schedule are shown for context but kept out of the number: over a handful of games they're mostly noise.

Top wide receivers · F&D form now
Props · this week

This week's lines against his last 17

Each bar is a game; green cleared the line. "Market says" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit, so this is history and the market, not a tip.

This week · draftkings

Receiving yards over 49.5

Cleared9/17
Market says50%
Price1.90
line 49.5110951599828452405026720213810351917 games agolatest
This week · draftkings

Receptions over 4.5

Cleared9/17
Market says49%
Price1.91
line 4.56615653352501825217 games agolatest
The matchup · week 6 · SEA at DEN

Where Waddle can hurt the Seahawks

How he gets his production, set against how the Seahawks have held up in their last 17 games. Ranks are of 32.

Jaylen Waddle · against SEA

No obvious soft spot

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)
43%
Intermediate
39%
Deep (20+)
19%
Left side
44%
Middle
17%
Right side
40%

How SEA defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)
13th
Intermediate
1st
Deep (20+)
1st
Left side
6th
Middle
2nd
Right side
1st
Yards after catch allowed
9th
Sack rate forced
10th
The read
  1. Seattle are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Waddle's likeliest route is short throws (43% of his targets), where they rank 13th.
  2. Don't force deep balls: they've been Waddle's worst return (-0.19 EPA a target), and Seattle are 1st there.
  3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

SEA's corners, last 17 games

Who is likely to see him. Free data doesn't say who covers whom on each snap, so this is the group, not a confirmed matchup.

CornerTargetsYds / targetCatch %Depth facedRating
Josh Jobe776.453%11.583
Devon Witherspoon695.565%6.476
Riq Woolen533.753%7.264
Nehemiah Pritchett208.765%10.680

The average corner allows 7.4 yards per target. Red is tighter than average, green is looser.

Full game preview
Floor and ceiling

How his games are spread

0–9 yds: 2 games010–19 yds: 3 games20–29 yds: 1 games2030–39 yds: 1 games40–49 yds: 1 games4050–59 yds: 2 games60–69 yds: 0 games6070–79 yds: 1 games80–89 yds: 2 games8090–99 yds: 2 games100–109 yds: 0 games100110–119 yds: 1 games120–129 yds: 0 games120130–139 yds: 1 games
10/17games with 40+ yds
7/17games with 60+ yds
6/17games with 80+ yds
2/17games with 100+ yds
Role

Game by game

avg 6.4 targets25 wk 5: 925 wk 6: 825 wk 7: 425 wk 8: 625 wk 9: 925 wk 10: 725 wk 11: 725 wk 13: 625 wk 14: 725 wk 15: 425 wk 16: 925 wk 17: 126 wk 1: 326 wk 2: 1026 wk 3: 726 wk 4: 626 wk 5: 525 wk 526 wk 5
Game log · last 17

Every game

GameOpponentTgtRecYdsTDAir ydsEPAOver 49.5
26 wk 5LAC5219023+0.5No
26 wk 4SF6535130+0.7No
26 wk 3LA7210081-2.9No
26 wk 2JAX1081380153+8.7Yes
26 wk 1KC312013-4.3No
25 wk 17TB100015-0.9No
25 wk 16CIN95720125-1.8Yes
25 wk 15PIT4226045-3.2No
25 wk 14NYJ7550156+3.6Yes
25 wk 13NO63400102-2.3No
25 wk 11WAS7352096-0.2Yes
25 wk 10BUF75841162+4.5Yes
25 wk 9BAL9682094+7.3Yes
25 wk 8ATL6599169+8.0Yes
25 wk 7CLE4115093-0.5No
25 wk 6LAC86950120+1.7Yes
25 wk 5CAR961101144+10.4Yes