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SEAPittsburgh at home to Cleveland: the model leans PIT
CLE at PIT, Sunday 1:00pm ET. Model PIT 66%, market PIT 63%.
Week 8, Sunday 1:00pm ET. Pittsburgh are at home to Cleveland. Before anyone makes a call, here's how the two teams have actually played so far and where the model and the market sit.
How they have played so far
| CLE | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| Offence EPA/play | -0.05 (26th) | -0.05 (25th) |
| Defence EPA/play allowed | -0.04 (11th) | -0.04 (8th) |
| Offence success rate | 42% (17th) | 42% (22nd) |
| Third-down conversion | 33% (30th) | 40% (19th) |
| Pressure rate allowed | 26% (27th) | 21% (13th) |
| Pressure rate generated | 22% (19th) | 18% (29th) |
| Red-zone TD rate | 59% (21st) | 56% (24th) |
Season to date, weeks 1-7 (rank of 32 in brackets)
Where it gets decided
Pittsburgh's defence (8th) should have the upper hand on Cleveland's offence (26th). Cleveland's defence (11th) should have the upper hand on Pittsburgh's offence (25th).
A caveat worth keeping: that's 7 games of evidence per team. Early-season ranks move a lot.
Matchups to watch
DK Metcalf against Cleveland: no obvious soft spot. Cleveland are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Metcalf's likeliest route is short throws (55% of his targets), where they rank 11th. Don't force deep balls: they've been Metcalf's worst return (-0.20 EPA a target), and Cleveland are 4th there.
T.J. Watt against Cleveland: a line to get after. Cleveland give up a sack on 9.3% of dropbacks over their last 17 games, 30th of 32 (a line that leaks). Watt is 67th percentile for pressures and 81st for sacks. This is a week to expect him in the backfield.
Harold Fannin Jr. against Pittsburgh: the shot plays are there. Pittsburgh rank 31st against deep balls, and 6% of Fannin's targets travel 20+ yards (the average TE is at 6%). Don't force short throws: they've been Fannin's worst return (-0.07 EPA a target), and Pittsburgh are 2nd there.
These are the defence's profiles against each player's usual targets, not confirmed one-on-ones: free data doesn't show who covers whom.
The model and the market
The model has Pittsburgh at 66% (medium confidence), with a line of PIT by 6.8. The market agrees on the side at 63% (PIT by 3.5). That's one input, not a tip: across 2026 the market has called more winners than we have, so read the matchup below before you lean either way.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play; PFR advanced passing; 4th & Data run 2026-10-31T09-12-41Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
