This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to WAS. PHI have struggled recently, losing 5 of their last 5. WAS have been struggling, dropping 4 of their last 5.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

Dallas Goedert · against WAS

Best way in: short throws

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

77%

Intermediate

19%

Deep (20+)

4%

Left side

32%

Middle

19%

Right side

49%

How WAS defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

27th

Intermediate

26th

Deep (20+)

26th

Left side

19th

Middle

29th

Right side

30th

Yards after catch allowed

30th

Sack rate forced

23rd

The read

1. Washington rank 27th against short throws, which make up 77% of Goedert's targets.
2. Work the right side: 49% of his targets go that way and Washington rank 30th defending throws there.
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Terry McLaurin · against PHI

Best way in: intermediate throws

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

42%

Intermediate

35%

Deep (20+)

23%

Left side

58%

Middle

14%

Right side

28%

How PHI defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

4th

Intermediate

21st

Deep (20+)

14th

Left side

23rd

Middle

9th

Right side

3rd

Yards after catch allowed

17th

Sack rate forced

15th

The read

1. Philadelphia rank 21st against intermediate throws, which make up 35% of McLaurin's targets.
2. Work the left side: 58% of his targets go that way and Philadelphia rank 23rd defending throws there.
3. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 13th percentile for separation and 28th for hands, and Quinyon Mitchell and Adoree' Jackson both allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
4. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 7. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Eagles have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

PHI offence

WAS defence

OverallEPA per play

30th

25th

PassingEPA per dropback

27th

26th

RushingEPA per carry

22nd

20th

Third downconversion rate

25th

26th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

21st

25th

Biggest gap: overall, where the Commanders defence has a 5-place edge.

When the Commanders have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

WAS offence

PHI defence

OverallEPA per play

18th

28th

PassingEPA per dropback

19th

27th

RushingEPA per carry

23rd

32nd

Third downconversion rate

32nd

19th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

16th

32nd

Biggest gap: pass protection, where the Commanders offence has a 16-place edge.

Form and history

Eagles this season

W24-22wk 1 vs WASW24-20wk 2 at TENL7-27wk 3 at CHIL20-24wk 4 vs LAL17-19wk 5 at JAXL14-25wk 6 vs CARL21-38wk 7 vs DAL

Commanders this season

L22-24wk 1 at PHIL20-37wk 2 at DALW33-31wk 3 vs SEAL13-30wk 4 vs INDT27-27wk 5 vs NYGL17-23wk 6 at SF

Last 5 meetingsPHI 3 · WAS 2

22-24WAS at PHI
2026-09

24-17WAS at PHI
2026-01

29-18PHI at WAS
2025-12

23-55WAS at PHI
2025-01

33-36PHI at WAS
2024-12

Injury report

Eaglesmodel impact 0.0

Uar BernardDT	Out
Jalen HurtsQB · Calf	IR
Johnny WilsonWR · Knee	IR
Will ShipleyRB · Foot	IR
Tank BigsbyRB · Abdomen	IR
Jakorian BennettDB · Knee	IR
Andre' SamDB · Foot	IR
Tucker LargeDB	PUP
Britain CoveyWR · Knee	Questionable
Dontayvion WicksWR · Ankle	Questionable
DeVonta SmithWR · Hamstring	Questionable
Saquon BarkleyRB · Back	Questionable

Commandersmodel impact -0.7

Terry McLaurinWR · Knee	Out
Jaylin LaneWR · Ankle	IR
Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · Groin	IR
Leo ChenalLB · Neck	IR
Laremy TunsilOL · Triceps	IR
Jer'Zhan NewtonDL · Pectoral	IR
Javontae Jean-BaptisteDL · Pectoral	IR
Marcus MariotaQB · Knee - MCL	Questionable
Charles OmenihuDE · Groin	Questionable
Javon KinlawDT · Knee	Questionable

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.