CAR
GB
ARI
TB
PIT
JAX
LV
NYJ
MIN
DET
LAC
LA
KC
DEN
NE
MIA
PHI
WAS
CHI
SEA
BUF look like the play here. BUF have been rolling at home, winning 4 of their last 5.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How BUF defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Buffalo rank 27th against intermediate throws, which make up 22% of Flowers's targets.
- Work the middle: 29% of his targets go that way and Buffalo rank 20th defending throws there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 87th percentile for separation and 15th for hands, and Christian Benford, Maxwell Hairston, Davison Igbinosun and Taron Johnson all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How BAL defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Baltimore rank 22nd against intermediate throws, which make up 16% of Shakir's targets.
- Work the right side: 46% of his targets go that way and Baltimore rank 22nd defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 7. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Ravens have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)BAL offenceBUF defenceBiggest gap: passing, where the Ravens offence has a 22-place edge.
When the Bills have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)BUF offenceBAL defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Bills offence has a 17-place edge.
Form and history
Ravens this season
41-23wk 1 at INDL
17-24wk 2 vs NOW
34-31wk 3 at DALW
24-18wk 4 vs TENW
30-23wk 5 at ATLL
10-13wk 6 at CLEL
13-35wk 7 vs CINBills this season
40-41BAL at BUF2025-09
25-27BAL at BUF2025-01
10-35BUF at BAL2024-09
23-20BUF at BAL2022-10
Injury report
Ravensmodel impact -0.7| Skylar ThompsonQB | IR |
| Adam RandallRB | IR |
| Durham SmytheTE · Achilles | IR |
| Bilhal KoneCB · Lower Body | IR |
| Tavius RobinsonDE · Pectoral | IR |
| Jovaughn GwynOL · Lower Leg | IR |
| Ethan PocicOL · Knee | IR |
| Danny PinterG · Knee | IR |
| T.J. Tampa Jr.DB · Knee | IR |
| Jahquez RobinsonDB | IR |
| Vega IoaneOG · Knee - MCL | Doubtful |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Ankle | Questionable |
Billsmodel impact 0.0| Tyrell ShaversWR · Knee - ACL | PUP |
| Dorian StrongCB · Neck | PUP |
| Zane DurantDT | IR |
| Jordan HancockDB · Hamstring | IR |
| DJ MooreWR · Shoulder - AC Joint | Questionable |
| Te'Cory CouchCB · Hamstring | Questionable |
| Ed OliverDT · Knee | Questionable |
| C.J. Gardner-JohnsonDB · Suspension | Sus |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
| Player | Market | Line | Price | Market over | Last 10 games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenBUF | Passing yards | 250.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 50% | |
| Lamar JacksonBAL | Passing yards | 236.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 40% | |
| Josh AllenBUF | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.68 | 56% | 60% | |
| Lamar JacksonBAL | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 90% | |
| Derrick HenryBAL | Rushing yards | 81.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 70% | |
| James CookBUFrole up | Rushing yards | 88.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 40% | |
| Josh AllenBUFrole up | Rushing yards | 36.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 60% | |
| Justice HillBALrole up | Rushing yards | 11.5 | 1.96 | 48% | 60% | |
| Lamar JacksonBAL | Rushing yards | 26.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 80% | |
| Dalton KincaidBUFrole up | Receiving yards | 46.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 30% | |
| Derrick HenryBAL | Receiving yards | 7.5 | 1.94 | 49% | 40% | |
| DJ MooreBUF | Receiving yards | 54.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 70% | |
| Ja'Kobi LaneBAL | Receiving yards | 27.5 | 1.92 | 49% | 50% | |
| James CookBUF | Receiving yards | 10.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 50% | |
| Justice HillBALrole up | Receiving yards | 10.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 60% | |
| Keon ColemanBUFrole up | Receiving yards | 31.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 30% | |
| Khalil ShakirBUF | Receiving yards | 39.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 60% | |
| Mark AndrewsBALrole up | Receiving yards | 28.5 | 1.92 | 49% | 70% | |
| Rashod BatemanBAL | Receiving yards | 25.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 60% | |
| Zay FlowersBAL | Receiving yards | 76.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 30% | |
| Dalton KincaidBUFrole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.69 | 56% | 40% | |
| Derrick HenryBALrole up | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.38 | 40% | 40% | |
| DJ MooreBUF | Receptions | 4.5 | 2.20 | 43% | 50% | |
| Ja'Kobi LaneBAL | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.83 | 52% | 50% | |
| James CookBUF | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.81 | 52% | 50% | |
| Justice HillBALrole up | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.65 | 57% | 80% | |
| Keon ColemanBUFrole up | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.22 | 42% | 30% | |
| Khalil ShakirBUFrole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.68 | 56% | 80% | |
| Mark AndrewsBALrole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.99 | 47% | 60% | |
| Rashod BatemanBAL | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.94 | 49% | 50% | |
| Zay FlowersBALrole up | Receptions | 5.5 | 1.78 | 53% | 20% |
"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors BUF (68%) by 6.5 points.