CAR
GB
ARI
DAL
ATL
TB
BAL
BUF
CLE
PIT
IND
JAX
LV
NYJ
MIN
DET
TEN
CIN
KC
DEN
NE
MIA
PHI
WAS
CHI
SEA
LA look like a strong play here. LAC have struggled recently, losing 5 of their last 5.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How LA defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- the Rams are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. McConkey's likeliest route is intermediate throws (33% of his targets), where they rank 13th.
- Don't force deep balls: they've been McConkey's worst return (-0.11 EPA a target), and the Rams are 2nd there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How LAC defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- the Chargers rank 17th against short throws and 29th for yards after the catch allowed. Nacua takes 63% of his targets short and is 94th percentile after the catch.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How LAC defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- the Chargers rank 6th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is short throws (17th).
- Pressure: the Chargers are 9th at getting sacks, and the Rams are 1st at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 7. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Chargers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)LAC offenceLA defenceBiggest gap: overall, where the Rams defence has a 27-place edge.
When the Rams have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)LA offenceLAC defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Rams offence has a 13-place edge.
Form and history
Chargers this seasonRams this season
10-31LA at LAC2023-01
Injury report
Chargersmodel impact 0.0| Evan SvobodaTE | Out |
| Trey LanceQB · Groin | IR |
| David NjokuTE · Lower Leg | IR |
| Denzel PerrymanLB | IR |
| Tyler BiadaszC · Knee | IR |
| Alec IngoldFB | IR |
| Trey Pipkins IIIT · Knee | IR |
| Trevor PenningT · Concussion | IR |
| Isaiah WorldOT · Knee | PUP |
| Rashawn SlaterT · Ankle | IR |
| Brenen ThompsonWR · Quadriceps | Questionable |
| Ladd McConkeyWR · Concussion | Questionable |
Ramsmodel impact 0.0No players on the injury report.
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors LA (78%) by 10.9 points.