PIT look like the play here. CLE have been hot lately, winning 4 of their last 5. PIT have been rolling at home, winning 4 of their last 5.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

DK Metcalf · against CLE

No obvious soft spot

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

55%

Intermediate

23%

Deep (20+)

22%

Left side

40%

Middle

18%

Right side

42%

How CLE defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

11th

Intermediate

8th

Deep (20+)

4th

Left side

1st

Middle

23rd

Right side

7th

Yards after catch allowed

16th

Sack rate forced

2nd

The read

1. Cleveland are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Metcalf's likeliest route is short throws (55% of his targets), where they rank 11th.
2. Don't force deep balls: they've been Metcalf's worst return (-0.20 EPA a target), and Cleveland are 4th there.
3. Work the middle: 18% of his targets go that way and Cleveland rank 23rd defending throws there.
4. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 36th percentile for separation and 42nd for hands, and Myles Harden, Denzel Ward and Mekhi Blackmon all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
5. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

T.J. Watt · against CLE

A line to get after

Profile

The read

1. Cleveland give up a sack on 9.3% of dropbacks over their last 17 games, 30th of 32 (a line that leaks).
2. Watt is 62nd percentile for pressures and 75th for sacks. This is a week to expect him in the backfield.

Harold Fannin Jr. · against PIT

The shot plays are there

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

79%

Intermediate

15%

Deep (20+)

6%

Left side

41%

Middle

26%

Right side

33%

How PIT defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

2nd

Intermediate

14th

Deep (20+)

31st

Left side

12th

Middle

10th

Right side

8th

Yards after catch allowed

13th

Sack rate forced

11th

The read

1. Pittsburgh rank 31st against deep balls, and 6% of Fannin's targets travel 20+ yards (the average TE is at 6%).
2. Don't force short throws: they've been Fannin's worst return (-0.07 EPA a target), and Pittsburgh are 2nd there.
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 7. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Browns have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

CLE offence

PIT defence

OverallEPA per play

26th

8th

PassingEPA per dropback

21st

11th

RushingEPA per carry

26th

8th

Third downconversion rate

30th

7th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

32nd

13th

Biggest gap: third down, where the Steelers defence has a 23-place edge.

When the Steelers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

PIT offence

CLE defence

OverallEPA per play

25th

11th

PassingEPA per dropback

28th

7th

RushingEPA per carry

2nd

14th

Third downconversion rate

21st

13th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

25th

6th

Biggest gap: passing, where the Browns defence has a 21-place edge.

Form and history

Browns this season

L10-34wk 1 at JAXW23-19wk 2 at TBW21-18wk 3 vs CARW27-24wk 4 vs PITL12-17wk 5 at NYJW13-10wk 6 vs BALW27-24wk 7 at TEN

Steelers this season

W20-13wk 1 vs ATLL3-20wk 2 at NEW30-27wk 3 vs CINL24-27wk 4 at CLEW34-22wk 5 vs INDW26-19wk 6 at TBW16-10wk 7 at NO

Last 5 meetingsCLE 3 · PIT 2

24-27PIT at CLE
2026-10

6-13PIT at CLE
2025-12

9-23CLE at PIT
2025-10

14-27CLE at PIT
2024-12

19-24PIT at CLE
2024-11

Injury report

Brownsmodel impact 0.0

Bub MeansWR · Knee	Out
Nathaniel WatsonLB · Knee	Out
Raheim SandersRB · Hip	IR
Joe RoyerTE · Personal	PUP
Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLB · Neck	PUP
Teven JenkinsOL · Back	IR
Kalia DavisDL · Quadriceps	IR
Alex WrightDL · Achilles	IR
Damarri MathisDB	IR
Mike Hall Jr.DT · Ankle	Questionable
Tytus HowardOL · Concussion	Questionable
Myles HardenDB · Hamstring	Questionable

Steelersmodel impact 0.0

Max HurlemanCB	Out
Roman WilsonWR · Finger	IR
Michael Pittman Jr.WR · Foot	IR
Donte KentCB	PUP
Sebastian Joseph-DayDT · Triceps	IR
Logan LeeDL	IR
Gennings DunkerOT · Knee	IR
Derrick HarmonDL · Foot	IR
Jack DriscollT	IR
Ben SkowronekWR · Calf	Questionable
Brandin EcholsCB · Hamstring	Questionable

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.