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CIN look like a strong play here. TEN have struggled recently, losing 4 of their last 5.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How CIN defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Cincinnati rank 29th against short throws, which make up 73% of Robinson's targets.
- Work the left side: 38% of his targets go that way and Cincinnati rank 32nd defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How TEN defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Tennessee rank 30th against intermediate throws, which make up 29% of Chase's targets.
- Work the middle: 23% of his targets go that way and Tennessee rank 28th defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How TEN defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Tennessee rank 27th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 30th against intermediate throws.
- Pressure: Tennessee are 7th at getting sacks, and Cincinnati are 4th at avoiding them.
- Burrow is 98th percentile for accuracy and rarely gives the ball away, so the route to stopping him is the rush, not waiting for mistakes.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 7. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Titans have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)TEN offenceCIN defenceBiggest gap: overall, where the Bengals defence has a 21-place edge.
When the Bengals have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)CIN offenceTEN defenceBiggest gap: passing, where the Bengals offence has a 18-place edge.
Form and history
Titans this season
10-23wk 1 vs NYJL
20-24wk 2 vs PHIL
7-12wk 3 at NYGL
18-24wk 4 at BALL
3-26wk 5 vs HOUW
26-20wk 6 at INDL
24-27wk 7 vs CLEBengals this season37-27CIN at TEN2024-12
3-27CIN at TEN2023-10
20-16CIN at TEN2022-11
19-16CIN at TEN2022-01
Injury report
Titansmodel impact 0.0| Jaren KanakTE · Pectoral | IR |
| Jaylen HarrellDE · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Tanoh KpassagnonDE | IR |
| Dorian MausiLB | IR |
| Milo EiflerLB | IR |
| Jackson SlaterOL · Foot | IR |
| Fernando Carmona Jr.G · Ankle | IR |
| Kendell BrooksDB | IR |
| Calvin RidleyWR · Hip | Questionable |
| Tyjae SpearsRB · Knee | Questionable |
| Donnie ErnsbergerTE | Questionable |
| Tommy TownsendP · Knee | Questionable |
Bengalsmodel impact -1.6| Josh KattusTE | Out |
| Kyle DuggerDB · Quadriceps | Out |
| Andrei IosivasWR · Thumb | IR |
| Erick All Jr.TE · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Tanner HudsonTE · Pectoral | IR |
| Jalen DavisCB · Hamstring | IR |
| Swayze BozemanLB · Arm | IR |
| Ja'Sir TaylorDB | IR |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
| Player | Market | Line | Price | Market over | Last 10 games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam WardTEN | Passing yards | 200.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 0% | |
| Joe BurrowCIN | Passing yards | 263.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 70% | |
| Cam WardTEN | Passing TDs | 0.5 | 1.44 | 66% | 0% | |
| Joe BurrowCIN | Passing TDs | 2.5 | 2.50 | 38% | 80% | |
| Tony PollardTEN | Rushing yards | 61.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 50% | |
| Carnell TateTEN | Receiving yards | 54.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 50% | |
| Gunnar HelmTEN | Receiving yards | 18.5 | 1.92 | 49% | 50% | |
| Ja'Marr ChaseCIN | Receiving yards | 77.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 70% | |
| Tee HigginsCIN | Receiving yards | 65.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 70% | |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonTENrole up | Receiving yards | 37.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 70% | |
| Carnell TateTEN | Receptions | 4.5 | 1.97 | 48% | 50% | |
| Gunnar HelmTEN | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.52 | 62% | 50% | |
| Ja'Marr ChaseCINrole up | Receptions | 6.5 | 1.75 | 54% | 80% | |
| Tee HigginsCINrole up | Receptions | 4.5 | 1.75 | 54% | 70% | |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.71 | 55% | 80% |
"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors CIN (81%) by 10.4 points.