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LAPittsburgh at home to Indianapolis: the model leans PIT
IND at PIT, Sunday 1:00pm ET. Model PIT 51%, market PIT 56%.
Week 5, Sunday 1:00pm ET. Pittsburgh are at home to Indianapolis. Before anyone makes a call, here's how the two teams have actually played so far and where the model and the market sit.
How they have played so far
| IND | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| Offence EPA/play | -0.07 (24th) | -0.11 (28th) |
| Defence EPA/play allowed | +0.07 (26th) | -0.00 (14th) |
| Offence success rate | 43% (19th) | 41% (24th) |
| Third-down conversion | 40% (12th) | 35% (26th) |
| Pressure rate allowed | 20% (5th) | 24% (22nd) |
| Pressure rate generated | 18% (28th) | 20% (24th) |
| Red-zone TD rate | 77% (6th) | 54% (24th) |
Season to date, weeks 1-4 (rank of 32 in brackets)
Where it gets decided
Indianapolis's protection (5th in pressure allowed) should hold up against Pittsburgh's rush (24th). Pittsburgh's defence (14th) should have the upper hand on Indianapolis's offence (24th).
A caveat worth keeping: that's 4 games of evidence per team. Early-season ranks move a lot.
Matchups to watch
DK Metcalf against Indianapolis: best way in: deep balls. Indianapolis rank 17th against deep balls, which make up 25% of Metcalf's targets. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 25th percentile for separation and 56th for hands, and Mekhi Blackmon allows fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
T.J. Watt against Indianapolis: a line that holds up. Indianapolis give up a sack on 5.4% of dropbacks over their last 17 games, 11th of 32 (a line that holds up). Watt is 85th percentile for sacks, but against this protection his splash plays (99th percentile) may matter more than sack volume: a strip or a batted ball can swing it.
Tyler Warren against Pittsburgh: best way in: intermediate throws. Pittsburgh rank 23rd against intermediate throws, which make up 21% of Warren's targets. Work the right side: 37% of his targets go that way and Pittsburgh rank 20th defending throws there.
These are the defence's profiles against each player's usual targets, not confirmed one-on-ones: free data doesn't show who covers whom.
The model and the market
The model has Pittsburgh at 51% (low confidence), with a line of IND by 0.8. The market agrees on the side at 56% (PIT by 2.5). That's one input, not a tip: across 2026 the market has called more winners than we have, so read the matchup below before you lean either way.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play; PFR advanced passing; 4th & Data run 2026-10-08T09-10-43Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.