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JAX look like a strong play here.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How JAX defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Jacksonville are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Wicks's likeliest route is deep balls (18% of his targets), where they rank 11th.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 12th percentile for separation and 18th for hands, and Montaric Brown, Jarrian Jones and Jourdan Lewis all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How PHI defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Philadelphia are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Meyers's likeliest route is intermediate throws (38% of his targets), where they rank 12th.
- Work the left side: 32% of his targets go that way and Philadelphia rank 24th defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How JAX defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Jacksonville rank 5th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is intermediate throws (11th).
- Pressure: Jacksonville are 28th at getting sacks, and Philadelphia are 15th at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 4. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Eagles have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)PHI offenceJAX defenceBiggest gap: overall, where the Jaguars defence has a 22-place edge.
When the Jaguars have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)JAX offencePHI defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Jaguars offence has a 25-place edge.
Only 4 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.
Form and history
Eagles this seasonJaguars this season23-28JAX at PHI2024-11
21-29JAX at PHI2022-10
Injury report
Eaglesmodel impact 0.0| Chance CampbellLB | Out |
| Johnny WilsonWR · Knee | IR |
| Tank BigsbyRB · Abdomen | IR |
| Grant CalcaterraTE · Back | IR |
| Eli StowersTE · Hamstring | IR |
| Landon DickersonOL · Knee | IR |
| Jakorian BennettDB · Knee | IR |
| Andre' SamDB · Foot | IR |
| Tucker LargeDB | PUP |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Knee - MCL | Doubtful |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Hamstring | Questionable |
| Marquise BrownWR · Ankle | Questionable |
Jaguarsmodel impact 0.0| Zach DurfeeDE · Upper Body | IR |
| B.J. GreenDE · Elbow | IR |
| Parker HughesLB | IR |
| Jared BartlettLB · Leg | IR |
| Patrick MekariOL · Back | IR |
| Sam MustipherOL | IR |
| Caleb RansawDB · Knee | IR |
| Garrett DiGiorgioG | IR |
| Eric MurrayDB · Head | Questionable |
| Montaric BrownDB · Hamstring | Questionable |
| Christian BraswellDB · Knee | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
| Player | Market | Line | Price | Market over | Last 10 games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen HurtsPHI | Passing yards | 191.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 40% | |
| Trevor LawrenceJAX | Passing yards | 229.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 30% | |
| Jalen HurtsPHI | Passing TDs | 0.5 | 1.47 | 64% | 70% | |
| Trevor LawrenceJAXrole up | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.86 | 51% | 40% | |
| Bhayshul TutenJAX | Rushing yards | 62.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 50% | |
| Jalen HurtsPHI | Rushing yards | 26.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 90% | |
| Trevor LawrenceJAXrole up | Rushing yards | 15.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 20% | |
| Bhayshul TutenJAX | Receiving yards | 9.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 50% | |
| Brenton StrangeJAX | Receiving yards | 36.5 | 1.92 | 49% | 30% | |
| Brian Thomas JrJAX | Receiving yards | 23.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 40% | |
| Jakobi MeyersJAXrole up | Receiving yards | 40.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 90% | |
| Josh CameronJAX | Receiving yards | 11.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 30% | |
| Parker WashingtonJAXrole up | Receiving yards | 59.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 10% | |
| Bhayshul TutenJAX | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 50% | |
| Brenton StrangeJAX | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.98 | 47% | 30% | |
| Brian Thomas JrJAX | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.41 | 39% | 50% | |
| Jakobi MeyersJAX | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.80 | 52% | 90% | |
| Josh CameronJAX | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.21 | 43% | 30% | |
| Parker WashingtonJAXrole up | Receptions | 4.5 | 1.76 | 54% | 20% |
"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors JAX (84%) by 12.5 points.