TB
DAL
PHI
JAX
CIN
MIA
CLE
NYJ
HOU
TEN
IND
PIT
LV
NE
MIN
NO
NYG
WAS
DEN
LAC
DET
ARI
SF
SEA
BAL
ATL
BUF
LA
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to CHI.
Quarterback watch: CHI starting QB Caleb Williams is Out
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How GB defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Green Bay rank 24th against deep balls, and 26% of Odunze's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
- Work the right side: 52% of his targets go that way and Green Bay rank 26th defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How CHI defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Chicago rank 25th against deep balls, and 24% of Watson's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
- Don't force short throws: they've been Watson's worst return (-0.04 EPA a target), and Chicago are 12th there.
- Work the middle: 28% of his targets go that way and Chicago rank 28th defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 4. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Bears have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)CHI offenceGB defenceBiggest gap: third down, where the Bears offence has a 23-place edge.
When the Packers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)GB offenceCHI defenceBiggest gap: third down, where the Bears defence has a 30-place edge.
Only 4 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.
Form and history
Bears this season
Packers this season27-31GB at CHI2026-01
16-22GB at CHI2025-12
21-28CHI at GB2025-12
24-22CHI at GB2025-01
20-19GB at CHI2024-11
Injury report
Bearsmodel impact 0.0| Caleb WilliamsQB · Hamstring | Out |
| Anthony JohnsonDB | Out |
| Brittain BrownRB | IR |
| Nikola KalinicTE · Knee | IR |
| Hayden LargeTE | IR |
| Shemar TurnerDE · Knee - ACL | PUP |
| Tony FieldsLB | IR |
| Noah SewellLB · Achilles | PUP |
| Nephi SewellLB · Concussion | IR |
| Braxton JonesOL · Knee | IR |
| Kyler GordonDB | PUP |
| Coby BryantDB · Knee | IR |
Packersmodel impact 0.0| Jayden ReedWR · Neck | IR |
| Savion WilliamsWR | IR |
| Thomas YassminTE | IR |
| Luke MusgraveTE | PUP |
| Collin OliverDE | IR |
| Micah ParsonsLB · Knee - ACL | PUP |
| Edgerrin CooperLB · Achilles | IR |
| Zach Bako-BeweleOL · Knee | IR |
| Jordon RileyDL · Achilles | PUP |
| Warren BrinsonDL · Calf | IR |
| Johnathan BaldwinDB · Knee | IR |
| Pierre StrongRB · Hamstring | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
| Player | Market | Line | Price | Market over | Last 10 games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan LoveGBrole up | Passing yards | 231.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 30% | |
| Tyson BagentCHI | Passing yards | 219.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 22% | |
| Jordan LoveGBrole up | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 2.16 | 44% | 30% | |
| Tyson BagentCHI | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 2.02 | 47% | 11% | |
| D'Andre SwiftCHI | Rushing yards | 61.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 30% | |
| Christian WatsonGB | Receiving yards | 60.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 30% | |
| Colston LovelandCHI | Receiving yards | 35.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 50% | |
| D'Andre SwiftCHIrole up | Receiving yards | 13.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 50% | |
| Kalif RaymondCHIrole up | Receiving yards | 28.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 40% | |
| Luther Burden IIIGB | Receiving yards | 48.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 0% | |
| Matthew GoldenGB | Receiving yards | 55.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 0% | |
| Rome OdunzeCHI | Receiving yards | 37.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 60% | |
| Tucker KraftGB | Receiving yards | 49.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 30% | |
| Christian WatsonGBrole up | Receptions | 4.5 | 2.16 | 43% | 0% | |
| Colston LovelandCHI | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.64 | 58% | 50% | |
| D'Andre SwiftCHI | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.48 | 38% | 40% | |
| Kalif RaymondCHI | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.17 | 43% | 10% | |
| Luther Burden IIIGB | Receptions | 4.5 | 1.78 | 53% | 0% | |
| Matthew GoldenGB | Receptions | 4.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 0% | |
| Rome OdunzeCHI | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.60 | 59% | 60% | |
| Tucker KraftGB | Receptions | 4.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 20% |
"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors CHI (64%) by 5.2 points.