This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to DET.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

Amon-Ra St. Brown · against ARI

Best way in: short throws

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

66%

Intermediate

29%

Deep (20+)

5%

Left side

34%

Middle

31%

Right side

34%

How ARI defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

30th

Intermediate

15th

Deep (20+)

30th

Left side

27th

Middle

30th

Right side

31st

Yards after catch allowed

20th

Sack rate forced

26th

The read

1. Arizona rank 30th against short throws, which make up 66% of Brown's targets.
2. Work the middle: 31% of his targets go that way and Arizona rank 30th defending throws there.
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Trey McBride · against DET

The shot plays are there

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

75%

Intermediate

20%

Deep (20+)

5%

Left side

33%

Middle

21%

Right side

46%

How DET defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

16th

Intermediate

6th

Deep (20+)

29th

Left side

10th

Middle

26th

Right side

27th

Yards after catch allowed

1st

Sack rate forced

9th

The read

1. Detroit rank 29th against deep balls, and 5% of McBride's targets travel 20+ yards (the average TE is at 6%).
2. Work the right side: 46% of his targets go that way and Detroit rank 27th defending throws there.
3. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 17th percentile for separation and 77th for hands, and Rock Ya-Sin and Terrion Arnold both allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
4. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Jared Goff · against ARI

A pass defence to exploit

Profile

How ARI defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

30th

Intermediate

15th

Deep (20+)

30th

Left side

27th

Middle

30th

Right side

31st

Yards after catch allowed

20th

Sack rate forced

26th

The read

1. Arizona rank 30th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 30th against short throws.
2. Pressure: Arizona are 26th at getting sacks, and Detroit are 14th at avoiding them.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 4. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Lions have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

DET offence

ARI defence

OverallEPA per play

7th

25th

PassingEPA per dropback

6th

31st

RushingEPA per carry

14th

5th

Third downconversion rate

14th

25th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

10th

12th

Biggest gap: passing, where the Lions offence has a 25-place edge.

When the Cardinals have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

ARI offence

DET defence

OverallEPA per play

20th

31st

PassingEPA per dropback

23rd

29th

RushingEPA per carry

12th

27th

Third downconversion rate

13th

31st

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

8th

6th

Biggest gap: third down, where the Cardinals offence has a 18-place edge.

Only 4 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.

Form and history

Lions this season

W31-30wk 1 vs NOL31-41wk 2 at BUFW31-24wk 3 vs NYJL26-32wk 4 at CAR

Cardinals this season

W26-14wk 1 at LACL7-31wk 2 vs SEAL30-36wk 3 at SFL24-36wk 4 at NYG

Last 2 meetingsDET 2 · ARI 0

20-13DET at ARI
2024-09

12-30ARI at DET
2021-12

Injury report

Lionsmodel impact 0.0

Kendrick LawWR · Knee - ACL	IR
Isiah PachecoRB · Back	IR
Avonte MaddoxCB · Foot	IR
Payton TurnerDE · Back	IR
Damone ClarkLB	IR
Cade MaysOL · Wrist	IR
Giovanni ManuOL · Knee	PUP
Brian BranchDB · Achilles	PUP
Kerby JosephDB · Knee	PUP
Thomas HarperDB · Ankle	IR
Rock Ya-SinCB · Hamstring	Doubtful
Ben BartchOL · Foot	Questionable

Cardinalsmodel impact 0.0

Trey BensonRB · Knee	IR
James ConnerRB · Foot	IR
Hunter LongTE · Knee	IR
Tip ReimanTE · Ankle	PUP
Jameson GeersTE	IR
Kaleb ProctorDT · Knee - Meniscus	IR
Paris JohnsonOL · Biceps	IR
Will JohnsonDB · Neck	IR
Chase BisontisG · Knee - MCL	IR
Zach CarterDL · Knee	IR
Joey BlountDB	IR
Kitan CrawfordDB · Ankle	IR

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.