TB
DAL
PHI
JAX
CHI
GB
CIN
MIA
HOU
TEN
IND
PIT
LV
NE
MIN
NO
NYG
WAS
DEN
LAC
DET
ARI
SF
SEA
BAL
ATL
BUF
LA
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to CLE. CLE have been the more consistent team recently, while NYJ have struggled to find their form.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How NYJ defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- the Jets rank 31st against short throws and 28th for yards after the catch allowed. Fannin takes 79% of his targets short and is 82nd percentile after the catch.
- Work the left side: 40% of his targets go that way and the Jets rank 30th defending throws there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 56th percentile for separation and 39th for hands, and Brandon Stephens, Jarvis Brownlee and Azareye'h Thomas all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How CLE defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Cleveland are top ten against short, intermediate and deep throws over their last 17 games (5th, 9th, 9th). There's no obvious soft spot for Wilson to lean on.
- Don't force short throws: they've been Wilson's worst return (-0.01 EPA a target), and Cleveland are 5th there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 77th percentile for separation and 32nd for hands, and Denzel Ward, Myles Harden and Mekhi Blackmon all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How CLE defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Cleveland rank 1st in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is intermediate throws (9th).
- Pressure: Cleveland are 2nd at getting sacks, and the Jets are 32nd at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 4. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Browns have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)CLE offenceNYJ defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Jets defence has a 19-place edge.
When the Jets have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)NYJ offenceCLE defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Browns defence has a 20-place edge.
Only 4 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.
Form and history
Browns this season
Jets this season20-27CLE at NYJ2025-11
20-37NYJ at CLE2023-12
31-30NYJ at CLE2022-09
Injury report
Brownsmodel impact 0.0| Nathaniel WatsonLB · Knee | Out |
| Dillon GabrielQB · Back | IR |
| Dylan SampsonRB · Knee | IR |
| Joe RoyerTE · Personal | PUP |
| Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLB · Neck | PUP |
| Kalia DavisDL · Quadriceps | IR |
| Alex WrightDL · Achilles | IR |
| Damarri MathisDB | IR |
| Tylan WallaceWR · Knee | Questionable |
| Teven JenkinsOL · Back | Questionable |
| Mason GrahamDL · Knee | Questionable |
| Elgton JenkinsG · Concussion | Questionable |
Jetsmodel impact 0.0| Braiden McGregorDE · Pectoral | Out |
| Tim PatrickWR · Groin | IR |
| Arian SmithWR · Knee | IR |
| Omar CooperWR · Ankle | IR |
| Tre BrownCB | IR |
| Tyler BaronDE · Knee | PUP |
| Marcelino McCrary-BallLB · Ankle | IR |
| Kingsley JonathanDT · Thigh | IR |
| David OnyemataDT · Groin | IR |
| VJ PayneDB | IR |
| Anez CooperG · Shoulder | IR |
| Adonai MitchellWR · Finger | Doubtful |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
| Player | Market | Line | Price | Market over | Last 10 games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun WatsonCLE | Passing yards | 201.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 20% | |
| Geno SmithNYJ | Passing yards | 206.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 70% | |
| Deshaun WatsonCLErole up | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 2.50 | 38% | 20% | |
| Geno SmithNYJrole up | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 2.39 | 39% | 30% | |
| Braelon AllenNYJrole up | Rushing yards | 69.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 0% | |
| Deshaun WatsonCLErole up | Rushing yards | 25.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 40% | |
| Geno SmithNYJ | Rushing yards | 10.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 50% | |
| Isaiah DavisNYJrole up | Rushing yards | 9.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 67% | |
| Quinshon JudkinsCLE | Rushing yards | 58.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 50% | |
| Denzel BostonCLE | Receiving yards | 47.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 0% | |
| Garrett WilsonNYJ | Receiving yards | 71.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 30% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr.NYJ | Receiving yards | 36.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 10% | |
| KC ConcepcionCLE | Receiving yards | 39.5 | 1.91 | 49% | 50% | |
| Denzel BostonCLE | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.06 | 46% | 0% | |
| Garrett WilsonNYJ | Receptions | 6.5 | 2.10 | 45% | 30% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr.NYJ | Receptions | 4.5 | 2.23 | 42% | 0% | |
| KC ConcepcionCLE | Receptions | 4.5 | 2.12 | 45% | 50% |
"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors CLE (54%) by 0.4 points.