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LAPittsburgh 27‑24 loss: the offence stalled
Week 4, at Cleveland. Explosive-play rate ranked 1st of 2 this week; EPA per play ranked 2nd. Here's what the data says happened.
The Steelers lost to Cleveland 27-24 in week 4. As a fan I'd like to tell you it was all one thing. The numbers say it wasn't, so here's the game broken down the same way we'd break down anyone else's: protection, who got open, the calls, the drives, and the defence.
Protection
PFR's pressure charting for week 4 hasn't landed yet, so this section leans on play-by-play: 10 of 46 dropbacks ended in a hit or a sack.
A.Rodgers: EPA per dropback, clean vs hit or sacked (week 4)
Who got open, and where the ball went
| Player | Tgt | Sep (yd) | Catch % | Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 9 | 1.6 | 56% | 115 |
| Roman Wilson | 6 | 2.1 | 50% | 74 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 5 | 2.0 | 60% | 17 |
| Darnell Washington | 5 | 2.6 | 60% | 27 |
Targets vs separation (Next Gen Stats, week 4; league average separation 2.9 yd)
The calls and the drives
In neutral situations (early downs, within a score, first three quarters) Pittsburgh threw on 54% of plays (league 57%). Passes were worth +0.05 EPA and runs +0.11. 46% of third downs were 7+ yards to go (league 48%) — so early downs mostly kept them on schedule; the problem was converting.
12 drives, 4 trips inside the 20, 75% of them finished with a touchdown (league 88%). Drive endings: 5 punts, 3 touchdowns, 2 turnovers, 1 missed field goal.
The defence
Cleveland managed +0.10 EPA per play against us (2nd of 2 defences this week), converted 40% of third downs, and we got 2 sacks and 2 takeaways. Season to date the offence ranks 25th and the defence 16th of 32 by EPA per play.
Who won the matchups
DK Metcalf against Cleveland: Metcalf won it. 115 yards on 9 targets, against his usual 51.
T.J. Watt against Cleveland: Watt won it. 1 sack and 1 other QB hit, against his usual 1.5 sacks and hits a game.
Harold Fannin Jr. against Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh won it. Fannin held to 27 yards on 5 targets, against his usual 44.
EPA per play: +0.07 this week, 2nd of 2 (league +0.08). Indianapolis rank 31st of 32 in EPA per play allowed so far (+0.17, league +0.01). Stay on schedule: early-down efficiency is what keeps third downs manageable. Third-down conversion: 38% this week, 2nd of 2 (league 39%). Indianapolis rank 10th of 32 in third-down conversion allowed so far (38%, league 42%). The distances were manageable, so this is execution on the money down — the calls and the throws on third, not the early downs.
Not available when this was drafted: PFR pressure charting for week 4; FTN charting (reads, play action) for week 4. Those sections use play-by-play instead.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play; PFR advanced passing; Next Gen Stats; FTN charting. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.