This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to DEN. LAC have been struggling, dropping 4 of their last 4.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

Jaylen Waddle · against LAC

Best way in: short throws

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

42%

Intermediate

39%

Deep (20+)

18%

Left side

44%

Middle

16%

Right side

40%

How LAC defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

24th

Intermediate

2nd

Deep (20+)

5th

Left side

9th

Middle

5th

Right side

15th

Yards after catch allowed

29th

Sack rate forced

7th

The read

1. the Chargers rank 24th against short throws, which make up 42% of Waddle's targets.
2. Don't force deep balls: they've been Waddle's worst return (-0.19 EPA a target), and the Chargers are 5th there.
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Ladd McConkey · against DEN

A tough draw

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

53%

Intermediate

31%

Deep (20+)

16%

Left side

29%

Middle

28%

Right side

42%

How DEN defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

10th

Intermediate

8th

Deep (20+)

10th

Left side

4th

Middle

4th

Right side

23rd

Yards after catch allowed

5th

Sack rate forced

3rd

The read

1. Denver are top ten against short, intermediate and deep throws over their last 17 games (10th, 8th, 10th). There's no obvious soft spot for McConkey to lean on.
2. Don't force deep balls: they've been McConkey's worst return (-0.22 EPA a target), and Denver are 10th there.
3. Work the right side: 42% of his targets go that way and Denver rank 23rd defending throws there.
4. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 75th percentile for separation and 36th for hands, and Riley Moss, Ja'Quan McMillian and Patrick Surtain II all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
5. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 4. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Broncos have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

DEN offence

LAC defence

OverallEPA per play

16th

12th

PassingEPA per dropback

22nd

19th

RushingEPA per carry

8th

15th

Third downconversion rate

12th

16th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

4th

6th

Biggest gap: rushing, where the Broncos offence has a 7-place edge.

When the Chargers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

LAC offence

DEN defence

OverallEPA per play

32nd

23rd

PassingEPA per dropback

29th

15th

RushingEPA per carry

26th

31st

Third downconversion rate

24th

27th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

26th

20th

Biggest gap: passing, where the Broncos defence has a 14-place edge.

Only 4 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.

Form and history

Broncos this season

L10-31wk 1 at KCW20-13wk 2 vs JAXW30-26wk 3 vs LAL14-24wk 4 at SF

Chargers this season

L14-26wk 1 vs ARIL14-26wk 2 vs LVL16-24wk 3 at BUFL23-30wk 4 at SEA

Last 5 meetingsDEN 2 · LAC 3

3-19LAC at DEN
2026-01

20-23DEN at LAC
2025-09

27-34DEN at LAC
2024-12

23-16LAC at DEN
2024-10

9-16LAC at DEN
2023-12

Injury report

Broncosmodel impact 0.0

Jonah ColemanRB · Ankle	IR
Caleb LohnerTE · Lower Body	IR
Matt HenningsenDE · Achilles	IR
Levelle BaileyLB · Leg	IR
Nick GargiuloOL · Knee	PUP
Michael DeiterOL · Quadriceps	IR
Frank CrumOT	IR
Pat BryantWR · Ankle	Doubtful
Pat SurtainCB · Ankle	Doubtful
Dondrea TillmanDT · Hamstring	Questionable
Riley MossDB · Ribs	Questionable
Duplicate PlayerILB	COV

Chargersmodel impact 0.0

Rashawn SlaterT · Ankle	Out
KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR · Hamstring	IR
David NjokuTE · Lower Leg	IR
Denzel PerrymanLB	IR
Scott MatlockDT	IR
Branson TaylorOL	IR
Tyler BiadaszC · Knee	IR
Trey PipkinsT · Knee	IR
Isaiah WorldOT · Knee	PUP
Brenen ThompsonWR · Quadriceps	Questionable
Ladd McConkeyWR · Foot	Questionable
Charlie KolarTE · Forearm	Questionable

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.