TB
DAL
PHI
JAX
CHI
GB
CIN
MIA
CLE
NYJ
IND
PIT
LV
NE
MIN
NO
NYG
WAS
DEN
LAC
DET
ARI
SF
SEA
BAL
ATL
BUF
LA
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to HOU. HOU have struggled recently, losing 4 of their last 4. TEN have been struggling, dropping 4 of their last 4.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How TEN defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Tennessee rank 32nd against intermediate throws, which make up 38% of Collins's targets.
- Work the middle: 29% of his targets go that way and Tennessee rank 31st defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How HOU defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Houston rank 23rd against deep balls, and 12% of Robinson's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
- Don't force short throws: they've been Robinson's worst return (-0.05 EPA a target), and Houston are 2nd there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 80th percentile for separation and 34th for hands, and Kamari Lassiter and Derek Stingley Jr. both allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How TEN defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Tennessee rank 28th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 32nd against intermediate throws.
- Pressure: Tennessee are 5th at getting sacks, and Houston are 7th at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 4. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Texans have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)HOU offenceTEN defenceBiggest gap: passing, where the Texans offence has a 13-place edge.
When the Titans have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)TEN offenceHOU defenceBiggest gap: third down, where the Texans defence has a 8-place edge.
Only 4 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.
Form and history
Texans this seasonTitans this season16-13HOU at TEN2025-11
0-26TEN at HOU2025-09
23-14HOU at TEN2025-01
32-27TEN at HOU2024-11
3-26TEN at HOU2023-12
Injury report
Texansmodel impact 0.0| Noah WhittingtonRB · Quadriceps | Out |
| Graham MertzQB · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Jayden HigginsWR · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Tank DellWR · Knee - ACL + MCL | IR |
| British BrooksRB · Hamstring | IR |
| Jaylin SmithCB · Hamstring | IR |
| Ja'Marcus IngramCB · Shoulder | IR |
| Mario EdwardsDE · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Solomon ByrdDE · Ankle | IR |
| Ali GayeDE · Knee | IR |
| Jake HummelLB · Groin | IR |
| Henry To'oTo'oLB · Shoulder | IR |
Titansmodel impact 0.0| Jaren KanakTE · Pectoral | IR |
| Joshua WilliamsCB · Pectoral | IR |
| Jaylen HarrellDE · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Tanoh KpassagnonDE | IR |
| Dorian MausiLB | IR |
| Milo EiflerLB | IR |
| Jackson SlaterOL · Foot | IR |
| Fernando CarmonaG · Ankle | IR |
| Kendell BrooksDB | IR |
| Donnie ErnsbergerTE | Questionable |
| Dominique HamptonCB | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors HOU (68%) by 4.7 points.