Panthers at Falcons: week 2

Panthers

won by 31

Final · week 2

34–3

at Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Sun 20 Sept

Falcons

lost by 31

How the game swung

The Falcons' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

■ Falcons ahead■ Panthers ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q1 15:00 - Atlanta turnover by C.Rush (-14% WPA) flipped the script.

Q1 15:00 · Turnover

C.Rush EPA -4.8

13-C.Rush scrambles right end to ATL 29 for 9 yards (20-Z.Wheatley). FUMBLES (20-Z.Wheatley), RECOVERED by CAR-21-N.Scott at ATL 35. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

+14%win chance to CAR

Q1 10:51 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming

B.Young EPA +4.0

(Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 30-C.Hubbard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+8%win chance to CAR

Q1 9:07 · Turnover

C.Rush EPA -4.0

(Shotgun) 13-C.Rush pass short middle intended for 7-Bi.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 58-B.Okereke (55-D.Lloyd) at CAR 41. 58-B.Okereke to CAR 44 for 3 yards (8-K.Pitts; 5-D.London).

+9%win chance to CAR

Q1 0:46 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming

D.London EPA -4.1

(:46) 5-D.London left end to CAR 33 for -2 yards (55-D.Lloyd).

+3%win chance to CAR

Q3 7:13 · Turnover

C.Rush EPA -8.1

(Shotgun) 13-C.Rush pass short right intended for 8-K.Pitts INTERCEPTED by 55-D.Lloyd at CAR 27. 55-D.Lloyd to ATL 20 for 53 yards (5-D.London).

+1%win chance to CAR

Every drive

Panthers drive left to right, Falcons right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Turnover · 1 pl · 9 yds

TD · 8 pl · 52 yds

Turnover · 4 pl · 19 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 0 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 5 yds

FG · 6 pl · 10 yds

Downs · 7 pl · 37 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 4 yds

Punt · 5 pl · 12 yds

FG · 8 pl · 73 yds

FG · 12 pl · 76 yds

TD · 6 pl · 73 yds

Half · 2 pl · 4 yds

TD · 10 pl · 83 yds

Turnover · 5 pl · 27 yds

Downs · 7 pl · 18 yds

Def TD · 3 pl · 8 yds

Punt · 6 pl · 19 yds

Punt · 5 pl · 34 yds

Missed FG · 9 pl · 39 yds

Punt · 3 pl · -3 yds

Turnover · 10 pl · 31 yds

Half · 0 pl · 0 yds

CAR goal2040504020ATL goal

Side by side

344

Total yards

286

+0.14

EPA per play

-0.47

44%

Success rate

36%

First downs

Sacks taken

Turnovers

6/14

Third downs

4/13

Panthers leaders

PassingB.Young23/36 · 287 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT

RushingC.Hubbard12 car · 53 yds

ReceivingT.McMillan5/10 · 101 yds

Falcons leaders

PassingC.Rush10/17 · 86 yds · 0 TD · 2 INT

RushingBi.Robinson16 car · 72 yds

ReceivingD.London4/5 · 51 yds

Scoring

Q1 10:51	(Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 30-C.Hubbard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	6-0
Q1 10:48	10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.	7-0
Q1 04:33	10-R.Fitzgerald 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.	10-0
Q2 05:57	10-R.Fitzgerald 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.	13-0
Q2 01:11	6-N.Folk 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.	13-3
Q2 00:24	(:24) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 88-D.Waller for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	19-3
Q2 00:20	10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.	20-3
Q3 09:44	(Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 88-D.Waller for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	26-3
Q3 09:38	10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.	27-3
Q3 03:08	(Shotgun) 18-J.Strand pass short right intended for 4-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 55-D.Lloyd (8-Ja.Horn) at ATL 16. 55-D.Lloyd for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	33-3
Q3 02:58	10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.	34-3

How the model did

Right

Before kickoff the model had CAR 61%, the market CAR 58%. It finished CAR 34, ATL 3.

Pick published 20 Sept, 16:01 UK, before kickoff.