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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15WASNYG66%Sun 14:30NEDET56%Sun 18:00BUF69%NYJSun 18:00CAR55%NOSun 18:00HOU67%CLESun 18:00JAX77%TENSun 18:00KC75%ATLSun 18:00MIAIND54%Sun 18:00MINGB80%Sun 21:05LA74%ARISun 21:05SEA68%LVSun 21:25SF66%DALMon 01:20PITCIN66%Tue 01:15LACBAL59%
Rams
lost by 4
Final · week 3
26–30
at Empower Field at Mile High · Sun 27 Sept
Broncos
won by 4

How the game swung

The Broncos' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 05:00: LA score (6-0)Q1 04:55: LA score (7-0)Q2 13:21: LA score (10-0)Q2 04:46: LA score (13-0)Q2 00:03: LA score (16-0)Q3 07:50: DEN score (16-6)Q3 07:44: DEN score (16-8)Q3 02:19: DEN score (16-14)Q3 02:15: DEN score (16-16)Q4 08:44: LA score (19-16)Q4 05:01: LA score (19-22)Q4 04:49: DEN score (19-23)Q4 03:46: LA score (25-23)Q4 03:38: LA score (26-23)Q4 00:48: DEN score (26-29)Q4 00:47: DEN score (26-30)12345DEN winning ↑LA winning ↓
■ Broncos ahead■ Rams ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q4 5:01 - LA Rams turnover by M.Stafford (-53% WPA) sealed it.

1
Q4 5:01 · Turnover
M.Stafford EPA -9.3

(Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 23-K.Williams INTERCEPTED by 9-T.Hufanga at DEN 34. 9-T.Hufanga for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+53%win chance to DEN
2
Q4 3:46 · Explosive play
M.Stafford EPA +4.4

(No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 4-K.Mumpfield for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+29%win chance to LA
3
Q4 3:26 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
B.Nix EPA +2.9

(Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 13-P.Bryant to LA 36 for 39 yards (3-K.Curl).

+21%win chance to DEN
4
Q4 0:48 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
B.Nix EPA +1.7

(:48) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

+20%win chance to DEN
5
Q4 0:02 · Turnover
M.Stafford EPA -2.1

(:02) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 9-T.Hufanga at DEN -1. Touchback.

+37%win chance to DEN

Who won the matchups

Before the game we said where each player's edge was. Here's whether it happened.

Even

Even: Adams had 137 yards on 13 targets, close to his usual 65.

Profile
Targets13
Yards137
After the catch51
Yards on short throws48%
deep share of yards0%
Expected (his usual)6459%
Defence won it

the Rams won it: Waddle held to 10 yards on 8 targets, against his usual 60.

Profile
Targets8
Yards10
After the catch3
Yards on short throws100%
deep share of yards0%
Expected (his usual)6000%

Every drive

Rams drive left to right, Broncos right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
Punt · 7 pl · 27 yds
Q1
Punt · 3 pl · 4 yds
Q1
TD · 11 pl · 63 yds
Q1
Missed FG · 8 pl · 25 yds
Q1
FG · 6 pl · 59 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 7 yds
Q2
FG · 13 pl · 65 yds
Q2
Punt · 7 pl · 31 yds
Q2
FG · 8 pl · 59 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 6 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 3 yds
Q3
TD · 13 pl · 38 yds
Q3
Punt · 5 pl · 14 yds
Q3
TD · 8 pl · 46 yds
Q3
Punt · 6 pl · 2 yds
Q4
Turnover · 4 pl · 28 yds
Q4
FG · 6 pl · 7 yds
Q4
Punt · 3 pl · 8 yds
Q4
Def TD · 4 pl · 53 yds
Q4
TD · 4 pl · 77 yds
Q4
TD · 10 pl · 68 yds
Q4
Turnover · 7 pl · 53 yds
LA goal2040504020DEN goal

Side by side

482
Total yards
261
+0.01
EPA per play
-0.01
41%
Success rate
39%
25
First downs
16
4
Sacks taken
1
2
Turnovers
1
8/17
Third downs
7/13
Rams leaders
PassingM.Stafford30/55 · 390 yds · 2 TD · 2 INT
RushingK.Williams15 car · 88 yds
ReceivingD.Adams7/13 · 137 yds
Broncos leaders
PassingB.Nix17/34 · 186 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT
RushingJ.Dobbins17 car · 49 yds
ReceivingC.Sutton3/7 · 46 yds

Scoring

Q1 05:009-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.6-0
Q1 04:5592-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.7-0
Q2 13:2192-H.Mevis 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.10-0
Q2 04:4692-H.Mevis 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.13-0
Q2 00:03(:03) 92-H.Mevis 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.16-0
Q3 07:50(Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 13-P.Bryant for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.16-6
Q3 07:44TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-B.Nix pass to 17-J.Waddle is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.16-8
Q3 02:19(Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 45-N.Adkins for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.16-14
Q3 02:15TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-B.Nix pass to 13-P.Bryant is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.16-16
Q4 08:4492-H.Mevis 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.19-16
Q4 05:01(Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 23-K.Williams INTERCEPTED by 9-T.Hufanga at DEN 34. 9-T.Hufanga for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.19-22
Q4 04:493-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.19-23
Q4 03:46(No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 4-K.Mumpfield for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.25-23
Q4 03:3892-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.26-23
Q4 00:48(:48) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.26-29
Q4 00:473-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. PENALTY on LA-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced between dow26-30

How the model did

Wrong

Before kickoff the model had LA 70%, the market LA 54%. It finished LA 26, DEN 30.

LA Rams ranks #5 in turnovers (4.7%) - weight turnover tendency higher for high-risk teams.

Pick published 27 Sept, 10:09 UK, before kickoff.