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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15WASNYG66%Sun 14:30NEDET56%Sun 18:00BUF69%NYJSun 18:00CAR55%NOSun 18:00HOU67%CLESun 18:00JAX77%TENSun 18:00KC75%ATLSun 18:00MIAIND54%Sun 18:00MINGB80%Sun 21:05LA74%ARISun 21:05SEA68%LVSun 21:25SF66%DALMon 01:20PITCIN66%Tue 01:15LACBAL59%
Raiders
won by 8
Final · week 3
35–27
at Caesars Superdome · Sun 27 Sept
Saints
lost by 8

How the game swung

The Saints' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 07:39: LV score (3-0)Q1 00:54: NO score (3-6)Q2 11:30: LV score (6-6)Q2 05:49: LV score (12-6)Q2 05:46: LV score (13-6)Q2 01:57: NO score (13-12)Q2 01:54: NO score (13-13)Q2 00:04: LV score (16-13)Q3 06:44: NO score (16-19)Q3 06:40: NO score (16-20)Q3 05:54: NO score (16-26)Q3 05:46: NO score (16-27)Q3 03:29: LV score (22-27)Q4 09:27: LV score (28-27)Q4 06:28: LV score (34-27)Q4 06:22: LV score (35-27)12345NO winning ↑LV winning ↓
■ Saints ahead■ Raiders ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q4 8:03 - New Orleans turnover by T.Shough (-29% WPA) sealed it.

1
Q3 6:40 · Turnover
D.Laube EPA -5.3

10-D.Carlson kicks 63 yards from NO 35 to LV 2. 23-D.Laube to LV 30 for 28 yards (33-A.Jennings). FUMBLES (33-A.Jennings), RECOVERED by NO-31-J.Howden at LV 32.

+12%win chance to NO
2
Q4 13:04 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
T.Shough EPA -5.7

(Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at LV 39 for -10 yards (51-M.Koonce). FUMBLES (51-M.Koonce) [51-M.Koonce], touched at LV 39, RECOVERED by LV-98-M.Crosby at LV 45.

+14%win chance to LV
3
Q4 8:03 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
T.Shough EPA -6.5

(Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left intended for 18-B.Lance INTERCEPTED by 35-H.Masses [51-M.Koonce] at NO 43. 35-H.Masses to NO 8 for 35 yards (83-J.Johnson). FUMBLES (83-J.Johnson), touched at NO 7, recovered by LV-69-A.Butler at NO 4.

+29%win chance to LV
4
Q4 2:21 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
T.Shough EPA -4.6

(Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at LV 30 for -10 yards (11-J.Chinn). FUMBLES (11-J.Chinn) [11-J.Chinn], RECOVERED by LV-3-T.Johnson at LV 32. Fumble Forced by 98-M.Crosby.

+7%win chance to LV
5
Q4 1:02 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
T.Shough EPA -3.7

(Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to NO 41 for 1 yard (17-N.Dean). FUMBLES (17-N.Dean), touched at NO 40, RECOVERED by LV-5-E.Stokes at NO 35.

+4%win chance to LV

Who won the matchups

Before the game we said where each player's edge was. Here's whether it happened.

Even

Even: Tucker had 43 yards on 4 targets, close to his usual 46.

Profile
Targets4
Yards43
After the catch8
Yards on short throws65%
deep share of yards0%
Expected (his usual)4565%
Chris Olave won it

Olave won it: 107 yards on 13 targets, above his usual 81.

Profile
Targets13
Yards107
After the catch30
Yards on short throws35%
deep share of yards0%
Expected (his usual)8100%

Every drive

Raiders drive left to right, Saints right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
Punt · 3 pl · 2 yds
Q1
FG · 11 pl · 63 yds
Q1
TD · 13 pl · 84 yds
Q1
FG · 8 pl · 46 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 2 yds
Q2
TD · 8 pl · 44 yds
Q2
TD · 10 pl · 72 yds
Q2
FG · 10 pl · 46 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 5 yds
Q3
TD · 12 pl · 87 yds
Q3
TD · 2 pl · 32 yds
Q3
TD · 6 pl · 71 yds
Q3
Punt · 5 pl · 17 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 0 yds
Q3
Turnover · 9 pl · 22 yds
Q4
TD · 7 pl · 55 yds
Q4
Turnover · 3 pl · 4 yds
Q4
TD · 3 pl · 4 yds
Q4
Turnover · 9 pl · 44 yds
Q4
Punt · 4 pl · 8 yds
Q4
Turnover · 3 pl · 15 yds
Q4
Half · 0 pl · 0 yds
LV goal2040504020NO goal

Side by side

342
Total yards
381
+0.11
EPA per play
-0.06
43%
Success rate
54%
20
First downs
26
3
Sacks taken
2
0
Turnovers
4
7/12
Third downs
9/15
Raiders leaders
PassingK.Cousins22/33 · 248 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
RushingA.Jeanty19 car · 56 yds
ReceivingB.Bowers10/13 · 116 yds
Saints leaders
PassingT.Shough29/42 · 255 yds · 4 TD · 1 INT
RushingT.Etienne13 car · 57 yds
ReceivingC.Olave9/13 · 107 yds

Scoring

Q1 07:3914-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.3-0
Q1 00:54(:54) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.3-6
Q2 11:3014-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.6-6
Q2 05:4966-T.Zuhn reported in as eligible. 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-M.Mayer for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.12-6
Q2 05:4614-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.13-6
Q2 01:57(Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 87-N.Fant for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.13-12
Q2 01:5410-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.13-13
Q2 00:04(:04) 14-M.Gay 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.16-13
Q3 06:446-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [98-M.Crosby].16-19
Q3 06:4010-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.16-20
Q3 05:546-T.Shough pass short right to 87-N.Fant for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.16-26
Q3 05:4610-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.16-27
Q3 03:294-M.Washington right guard pushed ob at NO 1 for 35 yards (21-J.Reid). Las Vegas challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERS22-27
Q4 09:278-K.Cousins pass short left to 82-C.White for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.28-27
Q4 06:28(Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 89-B.Bowers for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.34-27
Q4 06:2214-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.35-27

How the model did

Wrong

Before kickoff the model had NO 60%, the market NO 64%. It finished LV 35, NO 27.

Las Vegas ranks #4 in turnovers (4.9%) - weight turnover tendency higher for high-risk teams.

Pick published 27 Sept, 10:09 UK, before kickoff.