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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15WASNYG66%Sun 14:30NEDET56%Sun 18:00BUF69%NYJSun 18:00CAR55%NOSun 18:00HOU67%CLESun 18:00JAX77%TENSun 18:00KC75%ATLSun 18:00MIAIND54%Sun 18:00MINGB80%Sun 21:05LA74%ARISun 21:05SEA68%LVSun 21:25SF66%DALMon 01:20PITCIN66%Tue 01:15LACBAL59%
Falcons
won by 21
Final · week 3
35–14
at Lambeau Field · Thu 24 Sept
Packers
lost by 21

How the game swung

The Packers' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 05:17: GB score (0-6)Q1 05:13: GB score (0-7)Q1 01:35: ATL score (6-7)Q1 01:32: ATL score (7-7)Q2 04:53: ATL score (10-7)Q2 01:02: ATL score (16-7)Q2 00:59: ATL score (17-7)Q3 03:41: ATL score (23-7)Q3 03:38: ATL score (24-7)Q4 11:00: ATL score (27-7)Q4 08:21: GB score (27-13)Q4 08:18: GB score (27-14)Q4 03:35: ATL score (33-14)Q4 03:33: ATL score (35-14)12345GB winning ↑ATL winning ↓
■ Packers ahead■ Falcons ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q1 13:33 - Atlanta turnover by M.Penix (-11% WPA) sealed it.

1
Q1 13:33 · Turnover
M.Penix EPA -4.9

(Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short middle intended for 4-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney at GB 40. 29-X.McKinney to GB 45 for 5 yards (5-D.London).

+11%win chance to GB
2
Q3 10:02 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
J.Love EPA -3.6

10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 9-C.Watson.

+10%win chance to ATL
3
Q4 9:29 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
J.Love EPA +3.6

(Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 23-S.Moore to ATL 29 for 10 yards (31-X.Watts).

+0%win chance to GB
4
Q4 1:56 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
J.Love EPA +2.9

(Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 87-J.Sturdivant to ATL 30 for 10 yards (21-M.Hughes).

+0%win chance to GB
5
Q4 1:18 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
J.Love EPA -4.3

(Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle intended for 18-J.Smith INTERCEPTED by 31-X.Watts [54-B.Dorlus] at ATL 3. 31-X.Watts to ATL 20 for 17 yards.

+0%win chance to ATL

Who won the matchups

Before the game we said where each player's edge was. Here's whether it happened.

Drake London won it

London won it: 194 yards on 10 targets, above his usual 79.

Profile
Targets10
Yards194
After the catch112
Yards on short throws26%
deep share of yards35%
Expected (his usual)7947%
Christian Watson won it

Watson won it: 96 yards on 10 targets, above his usual 61.

Profile
Targets10
Yards96
After the catch26
Yards on short throws15%
deep share of yards0%
Expected (his usual)6094%

Every drive

Falcons drive left to right, Packers right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
Turnover · 4 pl · 21 yds
Q1
Punt · 3 pl · 6 yds
Q1
Punt · 5 pl · 9 yds
Q1
TD · 9 pl · 82 yds
Q1
TD · 7 pl · 80 yds
Q1
Punt · 3 pl · 6 yds
Q2
Punt · 7 pl · 42 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 1 yds
Q2
FG · 7 pl · 38 yds
Q2
Missed FG · 3 pl · 5 yds
Q2
TD · 8 pl · 63 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 8 yds
Q2
Half · 2 pl · 0 yds
Q3
Downs · 10 pl · 63 yds
Q3
TD · 10 pl · 87 yds
Q3
Punt · 7 pl · 18 yds
Q3
FG · 6 pl · 93 yds
Q4
TD · 10 pl · 76 yds
Q4
TD · 9 pl · 69 yds
Q4
Turnover · 12 pl · 63 yds
Q4
Half · 0 pl · 0 yds
ATL goal2040504020GB goal

Side by side

502
Total yards
328
+0.33
EPA per play
+0.01
65%
Success rate
40%
23
First downs
17
0
Sacks taken
1
1
Turnovers
1
6/10
Third downs
6/15
Falcons leaders
PassingM.Penix18/25 · 256 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT
RushingBi.Robinson29 car · 194 yds
ReceivingD.London9/10 · 194 yds
Packers leaders
PassingJ.Love28/53 · 312 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT
RushingM.Lloyd4 car · 11 yds
ReceivingM.Golden5/12 · 100 yds

Scoring

Q1 05:1710-J.Love pass short middle to 9-C.Watson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.0-6
Q1 05:1328-T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.0-7
Q1 01:357-Bi.Robinson left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.6-7
Q1 01:326-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.7-7
Q2 04:536-N.Folk 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.10-7
Q2 01:02(Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 81-A.Hooper for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.16-7
Q2 00:596-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.17-7
Q3 03:4171-J.Taylor reported in as eligible. 15-Br.Robinson left guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.23-7
Q3 03:386-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.24-7
Q4 11:006-N.Folk 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.27-7
Q4 08:21(Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 0-M.Golden for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.27-13
Q4 08:1828-T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.27-14
Q4 03:3562-C.Levin and 72-M.Jerrell reported in as eligible. 7-Bi.Robinson left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.33-14
Q4 03:33TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-M.Penix pass to 19-C.Blair is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.35-14

How the model did

Wrong

Before kickoff the model had GB 70%, the market GB 68%. It finished ATL 35, GB 14.

Atlanta ranks #1 in turnovers (9.4%) - weight turnover tendency higher for high-risk teams.

Pick published 24 Sept, 10:06 UK, before kickoff.

Rewind · week 3

Atlanta 35, Green Bay 14: what we missed

We had Green Bay at 69%. Atlanta won by 21. The empty tank angle we flagged landed, but the bigger miss was ours: Michael Penix was back and the model priced a backup-quarterback offence.

3 min