WAS
NYG
NE
DET
NYJ
CAR
NO
HOU
CLE
JAX
TEN
KC
ATL
MIA
IND
MIN
GB
LA
ARI
SEA
LV
SF
DAL
PIT
CIN
BAL
How the game swung
The Bills' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.
The five plays that decided it
Q4 11:15 - Buffalo fourth down conversion by J.Allen (+19% WPA) sealed it.
17-J.Allen left guard to BUF 44 for 1 yard (3-D.James).
(Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 22-G.Smith at BUF 44. 22-G.Smith to BUF 43 for 1 yard (88-D.Knox).
(Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 28 for -6 yards (52-K.Mack). Los Angeles Chargers challenged the passer was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 28 for -6 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [52-K.Mack], RECOVERED by LAC-0-D.Henley at BU
(Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle intended for 13-M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by 22-C.Gardner-Johnson at BUF 1. 22-C.Gardner-Johnson to BUF 42 for 41 yards (76-J.Alt).
(Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-T.Johnson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty [92-J.Eboigbe]. PENALTY on BUF-88-D.Knox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 14.
Who won the matchups
Before the game we said where each player's edge was. Here's whether it happened.
the Chargers won it: Shakir held to 6 yards on 3 targets, against his usual 41.
Every drive
Chargers drive left to right, Bills right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.
Turnover · 1 pl · 4 ydsTD · 8 pl · 32 ydsPunt · 5 pl · 4 ydsPunt · 3 pl · 1 ydsTurnover · 5 pl · 10 ydsFG · 5 pl · 15 ydsTurnover · 2 pl · 3 ydsMissed FG · 10 pl · 63 ydsFG · 9 pl · 60 ydsPunt · 4 pl · 12 ydsTD · 10 pl · 80 ydsHalf · 3 pl · 30 ydsFG · 12 pl · 96 ydsTurnover · 4 pl · 46 ydsPunt · 5 pl · 18 ydsTurnover · 4 pl · 3 ydsTurnover · 3 pl · 5 ydsTD · 13 pl · 83 ydsDowns · 5 pl · 7 ydsTD · 6 pl · 45 ydsFG · 6 pl · 69 ydsHalf · 3 pl · 13 ydsSide by side
Chargers leadersScoring
| Q1 10:37 | | (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 34-K.Mitchell for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. | 6-0 |
| Q1 10:33 | | 11-C.Dicker extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. | 7-0 |
| Q1 00:37 | | (:37) 11-C.Dicker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. | 10-0 |
| Q2 06:05 | | 16-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. | 10-3 |
| Q2 00:19 | | (:19) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-93-T.Tart, Defensive Offside, declined. | 10-9 |
| Q2 00:16 | | 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. | 10-10 |
| Q3 06:15 | | 11-C.Dicker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. | 13-10 |
| Q4 07:37 | | 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. | 13-16 |
| Q4 07:35 | | 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. | 13-17 |
| Q4 03:16 | | 4-J.Cook up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 13-23 |
| Q4 03:13 | | 16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman. | 13-24 |
| Q4 01:59 | | 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. | 16-24 |
How the model did
Before kickoff the model had BUF 82%, the market BUF 74%. It finished LAC 16, BUF 24.
Pick published 27 Sept, 10:09 UK, before kickoff.