ATL
GB
CAR
CLE
CIN
PIT
HOU
IND
KC
MIA
NE
JAX
NYJ
DET
SEA
WAS
TEN
NYG
ARI
SF
MIN
TB
BAL
DAL
LV
NO
LA
DEN
PHI
CHI
BUF look like a strong play here. BUF have been the more consistent team recently, while LAC have struggled to find their form.
Key matchups
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 2. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Chargers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)LAC offenceBUF defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Bills defence has a 17-place edge.
When the Bills have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)BUF offenceLAC defenceBiggest gap: passing, where the Bills offence has a 23-place edge.
Only 2 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.
Form and history
Chargers this seasonBills this season24-22BUF at LAC2023-12
Injury report
Chargersmodel impact 0.0| Charlie KolarTE · Forearm | Out |
| David NjokuTE · Knee | Out |
| KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR · Hamstring | IR |
| Denzel PerrymanLB | IR |
| Scott MatlockDT | IR |
| Branson TaylorOL | IR |
| Tyler BiadaszC · Knee | IR |
| Isaiah WorldOT · Knee | PUP |
| Dalvin TomlinsonDT · Hamstring | Doubtful |
| Elijah MoldenCB · Hamstring | Questionable |
| Kayode AwosikaOL · Leg | Questionable |
| Deane LeonardDB · Abdomen | Questionable |
Billsmodel impact 0.0| Tyrell ShaversWR · Knee - ACL | PUP |
| Dorian StrongCB · Neck | PUP |
| Zane DurantDT | IR |
| DJ MooreWR · Shoulder - AC Joint | Questionable |
| Ty JohnsonRB · Hamstring | Questionable |
| Ed OliverDT · Hip | Questionable |
| T.J. SandersDL · Knee | Questionable |
| Phidarian MathisDL · Suspension | Sus |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
| Player | Market | Line | Price | Market over | Last 10 games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenBUF | Passing yards | 242.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 50% | |
| Justin HerbertLACrole up | Passing yards | 219.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 50% | |
| Josh AllenBUF | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.62 | 58% | 60% | |
| Justin HerbertLACrole up | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 2.39 | 39% | 50% | |
| James CookBUF | Rushing yards | 81.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 50% | |
| Josh AllenBUFrole up | Rushing yards | 35.5 | 1.92 | 49% | 60% | |
| Justin HerbertLACrole up | Rushing yards | 19.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 50% | |
| Omarion HamptonLAC | Rushing yards | 59.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 50% | |
| DJ MooreBUF | Receiving yards | 50.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 80% | |
| Ladd McConkeyLACrole up | Receiving yards | 51.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 100% | |
| Omarion HamptonLAC | Receiving yards | 11.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 50% | |
| Quentin JohnstonLACrole up | Receiving yards | 35.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 50% | |
| Tre HarrisLAC | Receiving yards | 32.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 10% | |
| DJ MooreBUF | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.61 | 59% | 80% | |
| Ladd McConkeyLACrole up | Receptions | 4.5 | 2.21 | 43% | 90% | |
| Omarion HamptonLAC | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.65 | 57% | 50% | |
| Quentin JohnstonLACrole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.20 | 43% | 40% | |
| Tre HarrisLAC | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.60 | 59% | 20% |
"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors BUF (83%) by 13.5 points.