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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15ATLGB70%Sun 18:00CAR64%CLESun 18:00CIN55%PITSun 18:00HOUIND53%Sun 18:00KC59%MIASun 18:00LACBUF83%Sun 18:00NEJAX69%Sun 18:00NYJDET53%Sun 18:00SEA71%WASSun 18:00TEN53%NYGSun 21:05ARISF67%Sun 21:05MIN52%TBSun 21:25BALDAL54%Sun 21:25LVNO57%Mon 01:20LA65%DENTue 01:15PHI52%CHI
Dolphins
lost by 22
Final · week 2
13–35
at Levi's Stadium · Sun 20 Sept
49ers
won by 22

How the game swung

The 49ers' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 04:20: SF score (0-6)Q1 04:17: SF score (0-7)Q2 10:00: MIA score (3-7)Q2 05:29: SF score (3-13)Q2 05:24: SF score (3-14)Q2 00:02: MIA score (6-14)Q3 13:13: SF score (6-20)Q3 13:08: SF score (6-21)Q3 05:51: SF score (6-27)Q3 05:46: SF score (6-28)Q3 03:13: SF score (6-34)Q3 03:10: SF score (6-35)Q4 02:41: MIA score (12-35)Q4 02:30: MIA score (13-35)123SF winning ↑MIA winning ↓
■ 49ers ahead■ Dolphins ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The plays that decided it

Q1 0:49 - Miami fourth down conversion by M.Willis (+6% WPA) sealed it.

1
Q1 0:49 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
M.Willis EPA +1.9

(:49) 2-M.Willis up the middle to SF 29 for 2 yards (96-J.Thompson).

+6%win chance to MIA
2
Q3 3:55 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
B.Pinion EPA -3.2

(Punt formation) 48-B.Pinion FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 27, and recovers at MIA 28.

+0%win chance to SF
3
Q4 2:41 · Explosive play
M.Willis EPA +7.0

(Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep right to 84-R.Miller for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+0%win chance to MIA

Every drive

Dolphins drive left to right, 49ers right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
Missed FG · 8 pl · 39 yds
Q1
TD · 12 pl · 59 yds
Q1
FG · 16 pl · 68 yds
Q2
TD · 8 pl · 66 yds
Q2
FG · 11 pl · 58 yds
Q3
TD · 4 pl · 65 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 3 yds
Q3
TD · 8 pl · 76 yds
Q3
Downs · 6 pl · 16 yds
Q3
TD · 2 pl · 28 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 3 yds
Q3
Punt · 8 pl · 69 yds
Q4
Punt · 6 pl · 14 yds
Q4
Punt · 3 pl · 10 yds
Q4
TD · 3 pl · 83 yds
Q4
Half · 2 pl · 11 yds
MIA goal2040504020SF goal

Side by side

284
Total yards
384
-0.00
EPA per play
+0.46
41%
Success rate
57%
12
First downs
22
4
Sacks taken
0
0
Turnovers
0
7/15
Third downs
5/7
Dolphins leaders
PassingM.Willis14/23 · 197 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
RushingD.Achane20 car · 74 yds
ReceivingR.Miller1/1 · 77 yds
49ers leaders
PassingB.Purdy20/22 · 287 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
RushingB.Purdy3 car · 30 yds
ReceivingG.Kittle4/4 · 80 yds

Scoring

Q1 04:2023-C.McCaffrey right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.0-6
Q1 04:1718-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.0-7
Q2 10:0047-R.Patterson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.3-7
Q2 05:2913-B.Purdy scrambles left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.3-13
Q2 05:2418-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.3-14
Q2 00:02(:02) 47-R.Patterson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.6-14
Q3 13:1313-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.6-20
Q3 13:0818-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. ** Injury Update: MIA-51-R.Beal has returned to the game.6-21
Q3 05:51(Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 44-K.Juszczyk for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.6-27
Q3 05:4618-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.6-28
Q3 03:1323-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.6-34
Q3 03:1018-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.6-35
Q4 02:41(Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep right to 84-R.Miller for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN.12-35
Q4 02:3047-R.Patterson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.13-35

How the model did

Right

Before kickoff the model had SF 61%, the market SF 87%. It finished MIA 13, SF 35.

Pick published 20 Sept, 16:01 UK, before kickoff.