IND
WAS
ARI
NYG
DAL
HOU
GB
TB
JAX
CIN
LA
PHI
NE
BUF
NYJ
CHI
TEN
BAL
MIA
MIN
DEN
SF
KC
LV
LAC
SEA
DET
CAR
ATL
NO
We lean toward CLE in this one.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How CLE defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Cleveland are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Metcalf's likeliest route is intermediate throws (22% of his targets), where they rank 14th.
- Don't force deep balls: they've been Metcalf's worst return (-0.40 EPA a target), and Cleveland are 5th there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 27th percentile for separation and 34th for hands, and Myles Harden, Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome II all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
- Cleveland give up a sack on 8.9% of dropbacks over their last 17 games, 29th of 32 (a line that leaks).
- Watt is 70th percentile for pressures and 80th for sacks. This is a week to expect him in the backfield.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How PIT defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Pittsburgh rank 32nd against deep balls, and 7% of Jr.'s targets travel 20+ yards (the average TE is at 6%).
- Don't force short throws: they've been Jr.'s worst return (-0.02 EPA a target), and Pittsburgh are 7th there.
- Work the right side: 32% of his targets go that way and Pittsburgh rank 24th defending throws there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 36th percentile for separation and 47th for hands, and Brandin Echols, Joey Porter Jr. and James Pierre all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 3. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Steelers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)PIT offenceCLE defenceBiggest gap: passing, where the Browns defence has a 14-place edge.
When the Browns have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)CLE offencePIT defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Steelers defence has a 26-place edge.
Only 3 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.
Form and history
Steelers this seasonBrowns this season6-13PIT at CLE2025-12
9-23CLE at PIT2025-10
14-27CLE at PIT2024-12
19-24PIT at CLE2024-11
10-13PIT at CLE2023-11
Injury report
Steelersmodel impact 0.0| Max HurlemanCB | Out |
| Donte KentCB | PUP |
| Logan LeeDL | IR |
| Gennings DunkerOT · Knee | IR |
| DeShon ElliottDB | IR |
| Jack DriscollT | IR |
| Rico DowdleRB · Toe | Questionable |
| Brandin EcholsCB · Head | Questionable |
| Jalen RamseyCB · Wrist | Questionable |
Brownsmodel impact 0.0| Nathaniel WatsonLB · Knee | Out |
| Dillon GabrielQB · Back | IR |
| Dylan SampsonRB · Knee | IR |
| Joe RoyerTE · Personal | PUP |
| Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLB · Neck | PUP |
| Kalia DavisDL · Quadriceps | IR |
| Alex WrightDL · Achilles | IR |
| Damarri MathisDB | IR |
| Tylan WallaceWR · Knee | Questionable |
| Tyson CampbellCB · Knee | Questionable |
| Teven JenkinsOL · Back | Questionable |
| Tytus HowardOL · Knee | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
| Player | Market | Line | Price | Market over | Last 10 games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron RodgersPIT | Passing yards | 212.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 50% | |
| Deshaun WatsonCLE | Passing yards | 187.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 30% | |
| Aaron RodgersPIT | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 2.57 | 37% | 60% | |
| Deshaun WatsonCLErole up | Passing TDs | 0.5 | 1.47 | 64% | 60% | |
| Aaron RodgersPITrole up | Rushing yards | 1.5 | 1.96 | 48% | 40% | |
| Deshaun WatsonCLErole up | Rushing yards | 29.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 30% | |
| Jaylen WarrenPITrole up | Rushing yards | 67.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 10% | |
| Quinshon JudkinsCLE | Rushing yards | 56.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 50% | |
| Raheim SandersCLE | Rushing yards | 5.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 10% | |
| Darnell WashingtonPIT | Receiving yards | 17.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 30% | |
| Denzel BostonCLE | Receiving yards | 36.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 0% | |
| DK MetcalfPITrole up | Receiving yards | 43.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 80% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr.CLE | Receiving yards | 40.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 0% | |
| Jaylen WarrenPITrole up | Receiving yards | 22.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 60% | |
| Jerry JeudyCLErole up | Receiving yards | 13.5 | 1.86 | 51% | 100% | |
| KC ConcepcionCLE | Receiving yards | 34.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 50% | |
| Michael Pittman Jr.CLE | Receiving yards | 32.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 20% | |
| Pat FreiermuthPITrole up | Receiving yards | 28.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 50% | |
| Quinshon JudkinsCLE | Receiving yards | 12.5 | 1.85 | 51% | 50% | |
| Raheim SandersCLE | Receiving yards | 11.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 40% | |
| Roman WilsonPIT | Receiving yards | 22.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 30% | |
| Darnell WashingtonPITrole up | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.55 | 61% | 30% | |
| Denzel BostonCLE | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.65 | 57% | 0% | |
| DK MetcalfPITrole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.75 | 54% | 50% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr.CLE | Receptions | 4.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 0% | |
| Jaylen WarrenPITrole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.18 | 43% | 50% | |
| Jerry JeudyCLErole up | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.12 | 45% | 100% | |
| KC ConcepcionCLE | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.66 | 57% | 50% | |
| Michael Pittman Jr.CLE | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.08 | 45% | 50% | |
| Pat FreiermuthPITrole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.03 | 46% | 40% | |
| Quinshon JudkinsCLE | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.39 | 39% | 50% | |
| Raheim SandersCLE | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.54 | 61% | 60% | |
| Roman WilsonPIT | Receptions | 2.5 | 2.05 | 46% | 30% |
"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors CLE (57%) by 1.1 points.