CAR
GB
ARI
DAL
ATL
TB
BAL
BUF
CLE
PIT
IND
JAX
LV
NYJ
MIN
DET
TEN
CIN
LAC
LA
KC
DEN
NE
MIA
PHI
WAS
CHI
SEAWeek 7 graded: 8‑6, market 10‑4
The market beat us this week. Every pick was published before kickoff; here are the results, including the ones we got wrong.
Every week we grade every pick we published, against the result and against the market. Week 7: the model went 8-6; the market favourite went 10-4. The market beat us this week.
Where we were wrong
CAR at 73% (TB 43 @ CAR 13). SF at 72% (SF 20 @ ATL 29). HOU at 71% (NYG 27 @ HOU 21). The most confident misses are the ones worth learning from, so they go first.
Us vs the market
We were right where the market was wrong 0 times; the market was right where we were wrong 2 times (SEA, CHI).
| Game | Pick | Model % | Score | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ CAR | CAR | 73% | 43-13 | Wrong | Wrong |
| SF @ ATL | SF | 72% | 20-29 | Wrong | Wrong |
| LAR @ LV | LAR | 72% | 35-21 | Right | Right |
| NYG @ HOU | HOU | 71% | 27-21 | Wrong | Wrong |
| IND @ MIN | MIN | 67% | 10-16 | Right | Right |
| GB @ DET | DET | 64% | 17-20 | Right | Right |
| DEN @ ARI | DEN | 63% | 30-16 | Right | Right |
| PIT @ NO | PIT | 63% | 16-10 | Right | Right |
| KC @ SEA | KC | 60% | 3-20 | Wrong | Right |
| DAL @ PHI | DAL | 59% | 38-21 | Right | Right |
| CIN @ BAL | CIN | 58% | 35-13 | Right | Right |
| NE @ CHI | NE | 57% | 24-30 | Wrong | Right |
| MIA @ NYJ | NYJ | 57% | 28-25 | Wrong | Wrong |
| CLE @ TEN | CLE | 51% | 27-24 | Right | Right |
Every week 7 pick, most confident first
Picking winners is not beating the price. Across 2025 our flat-bet ROI at posted odds was negative. Use the model as one view of the game, not as a tip.
Sources: results_dashboard.json (2026-10-27T09:00:50.201668Z). Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
