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SEAPittsburgh win 16‑10: third downs went our way, but red-zone trips came up empty
Week 7, at New Orleans. Third-down conversion ranked 3rd of 28 this week; red-zone TD rate ranked 25th. Here's what the data says happened.
The Steelers beat New Orleans 16-10 in week 7. As a fan I'd like to tell you it was all one thing. The numbers say it wasn't, so here's the game broken down the same way we'd break down anyone else's: protection, who got open, the calls, the drives, and the defence.
Protection
PFR's pressure charting for week 7 hasn't landed yet, so this section leans on play-by-play: 4 of 34 dropbacks ended in a hit or a sack.
A.Rodgers: EPA per dropback, clean vs hit or sacked (week 7)
Who got open, and where the ball went
| Player | Tgt | Sep (yd) | Catch % | Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 6 | 1.5 | 33% | 56 |
| Germie Bernard | 5 | 2.3 | 60% | 27 |
Targets vs separation (Next Gen Stats, week 7; league average separation 2.9 yd)
On 33 charted passes, A.Rodgers threw to his first read 48% of the time (league 53%) and checked down on 18% (league 14%). Play action was used on 4% of snaps (league 10%), worth -0.68 EPA per pass against +0.11 without it. FTN charted 0 interception-worthy throws and 0 drops.
The calls and the drives
In neutral situations (early downs, within a score, first three quarters) Pittsburgh threw on 64% of plays (league 51%). Passes were worth +0.06 EPA and runs +0.19. 31% of third downs were 7+ yards to go (league 47%) — so early downs mostly kept them on schedule; the problem was converting.
7 drives, 4 trips inside the 20, 25% of them finished with a touchdown (league 63%). Drive endings: 3 field goals, 2 punts, 1 touchdown, 1 end of half.
The defence
New Orleans managed +0.06 EPA per play against us (15th of 28 defences this week), converted 50% of third downs, and we got 2 sacks and 1 takeaway. Season to date the offence ranks 25th and the defence 8th of 32 by EPA per play.
Who won the matchups
DK Metcalf against New Orleans: Metcalf won it. Metcalf won it deep: 51 of his 56 yards came on throws of 20+ yards.
T.J. Watt against New Orleans: Watt won it. 1 sack and 1 other QB hit, against his usual 1.4 sacks and hits a game.
Chris Olave against Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh won it. Olave held to 56 yards on 10 targets, against his usual 88.
Red-zone TD rate: 25% this week, 25th of 28 (league 63%). Cleveland rank 10th of 32 in red-zone TD rate allowed so far (58%, league 62%). Finish drives. Field goals from inside the 20 are points left on the table. Third-down conversion allowed: 50% this week, 17th of 28 (league 44%). Cleveland rank 26th of 32 in offensive EPA per play so far (-0.05, league +0.01). Get off the field on early downs and make them earn it through the air.
Not available when this was drafted: PFR pressure charting for week 7. Those sections use play-by-play instead.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play; PFR advanced passing; Next Gen Stats; FTN charting. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.