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SEAWeek 7's biggest plays: the Giants and the swing of the week
The five plays that moved win probability the most across 14 games, the longest gains, and who added the most expected points.
Every play moves each team's chance of winning. Most move it a point or two. These are the plays that moved it the most in week 7, one per game, with the longest plays and the week's most explosive players after them.
The five biggest swings
| Game | Helped | Win chance | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG @ HOU | The Giants | 56% → 85% | 29 pts |
| CLE @ TEN | Cleveland | 58% → 82% | 23 pts |
| PIT @ NO | Pittsburgh | 41% → 61% | 21 pts |
| DEN @ ARI | Denver | 44% → 65% | 20 pts |
| IND @ MIN | Minnesota | 40% → 58% | 19 pts |
Change in win probability for the team the play helped
1. The Giants at Houston. In overtime (08:23), with the score tied at 21-21, Cam Skattebo ran for 42 yards. The Giants' chance of winning went from 56% to 85%. The Giants went on to win.
2. Cleveland at Tennessee. With 28 seconds left, with the score tied at 24-24, Deshaun Watson found Harold Fannin Jr. for 36 yards. Cleveland's chance of winning went from 58% to 82%. Cleveland went on to win.
3. Pittsburgh at New Orleans. In the 2nd quarter (08:34), with the score tied at 3-3, Aaron Rodgers found DK Metcalf for 51 yards. Pittsburgh's chance of winning went from 41% to 61%. Pittsburgh went on to win.
4. Denver at Arizona. In the 2nd quarter (03:57), with the score tied at 6-6, Bo Nix ran in a 62-yard touchdown. Denver's chance of winning went from 44% to 65%. Denver went on to win.
5. Indianapolis at Minnesota. In the 4th quarter (15:00), with Minnesota trailing 10-6, Kyler Murray ran for 35 yards. Minnesota's chance of winning went from 40% to 58%. Minnesota went on to win.
The longest plays
| Player | Team | Play | Game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | DEN | 62-yard run, touchdown | DEN @ ARI |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | NYJ | 60-yard catch | MIA @ NYJ |
| Luther Burden III | CHI | 58-yard catch | NE @ CHI |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | NYJ | 52-yard catch | MIA @ NYJ |
| RJ Harvey | DEN | 52-yard catch, touchdown | DEN @ ARI |
The most explosive players
Explosive plays are runs of 10+ yards and catches of 20+. They decide games far more often than their share of snaps suggests.
| Player | Team | Explosive plays | Breakdown | Yards on them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 4 | 4 catches of 20+ | 110 |
| KC Concepcion | CLE | 4 | 1 run of 10+, 3 catches of 20+ | 94 |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG | 4 | 4 runs of 10+ | 88 |
| Tony Pollard | TEN | 4 | 4 runs of 10+ | 77 |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | 4 | 4 runs of 10+ | 72 |
| Luther Burden III | CHI | 3 | 3 catches of 20+ | 108 |
Who added the most
Expected points added (EPA) measures how much each play changed a team's expected score from that down, distance and field position. Summed over a game, it credits players for moving the ball when it mattered, not just for yards.
| Role | Player | Team | EPA | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | Joe Burrow | CIN | +18.9 | 32 dropbacks |
| Quarterback | Malik Willis | MIA | +18.3 | 28 dropbacks |
| Quarterback | Caleb Williams | CHI | +15.4 | 39 dropbacks |
| Pass catcher | Luther Burden III | CHI | +12.8 | 4 targets |
| Pass catcher | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | +12.4 | 12 targets |
| Pass catcher | Tee Higgins | CIN | +11.9 | 7 targets |
| Runner | Javonte Williams | DAL | +9.6 | 25 carries |
| Runner | Blake Corum | LA | +6.8 | 17 carries |
| Runner | Jaylen Warren | PIT | +4.8 | 18 carries |
Sources: nflverse play-by-play (win probability, EPA); nflverse rosters. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
