CAR
GB
ARI
DAL
ATL
TB
BAL
BUF
CLE
PIT
IND
JAX
LV
NYJ
MIN
DET
TEN
CIN
LAC
LA
KC
DEN
NE
MIA
PHI
WAS
CHI
SEAQB Index, week 7: Caleb Williams on top
34 quarterbacks ranked on expected points per dropback, adjusted for pressure, and accuracy against expectation. Who climbed, who fell.
Our quarterback ranking through week 7. It rewards the two things a quarterback controls most: adding expected points on every dropback, and completing passes more often than the difficulty of the throws predicts. Pressure is taken into account, so a quarterback behind a leaky line isn't punished for it.
Top 10 by QB Index
The movers
Sam Darnold (SEA) up 7 to 18th. Against Kansas City he averaged +0.51 expected points per dropback, completion over expected by 4.0 points. His season average is now 0.00.
Malik Willis (MIA) up 6 to 26th. Against the Jets he averaged +0.65 expected points per dropback, completion under expected by 4.5 points. His season average is now +0.01.
Bryce Young (CAR) down 4 to 10th. Against Tampa Bay he averaged -0.61 expected points per dropback, completion under expected by 15.7 points. His season average is now +0.11.
Patrick Mahomes (KC) down 3 to 16th. Against Seattle he averaged -0.12 expected points per dropback, completion under expected by 9.8 points. His season average is now +0.13.
Steelers
Aaron Rodgers is 28th of 34: -0.08 expected points per dropback, completion under expected by 1.1 points, pressured on 18% of dropbacks.
The full table
| # | Quarterback | Team | Index | EPA/db | CPOE | Pressured | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caleb Williams | CHI | 70 | +0.35 | +9.0 | 26% | – |
| 2 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 69 | +0.38 | +8.1 | 22% | – |
| 3 | Josh Allen | BUF | 65 | +0.37 | +5.1 | 19% | ▲1 |
| 4 | Drake Maye | NE | 63 | +0.26 | +6.7 | 24% | ▲1 |
| 5 | Brock Purdy | SF | 61 | +0.33 | +4.3 | 13% | ▼2 |
| 6 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 60 | +0.23 | +7.3 | 19% | ▲4 |
| 7 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 60 | +0.27 | +3.4 | 20% | – |
| 8 | Jared Goff | DET | 58 | +0.30 | +1.0 | 16% | – |
| 9 | Jayden Daniels | WAS | 58 | +0.14 | +7.4 | 23% | ▲2 |
| 10 | Bryce Young | CAR | 54 | +0.11 | +0.7 | 28% | ▼4 |
| 11 | Geno Smith | NYJ | 54 | +0.11 | +5.2 | 20% | ▲5 |
| 12 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 53 | +0.14 | +0.8 | 23% | ▲3 |
| 13 | Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | 52 | +0.15 | +0.1 | – | ▲5 |
| 14 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 52 | +0.14 | +2.3 | 17% | ▼2 |
| 15 | Kirk Cousins | LV | 50 | +0.13 | -2.0 | 20% | ▼1 |
| 16 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 50 | +0.13 | +0.3 | 16% | ▼3 |
| 17 | Matthew Stafford | LA | 50 | +0.12 | +1.5 | 15% | ▲2 |
| 18 | Sam Darnold | SEA | 49 | -0.00 | +0.5 | 29% | ▲7 |
| 19 | Jordan Love | GB | 49 | +0.12 | -3.1 | 20% | ▲2 |
| 20 | Tyler Huntley | BAL | 48 | +0.10 | +1.6 | 14% | ▼3 |
| 21 | Deshaun Watson | CLE | 48 | +0.05 | -0.6 | 22% | ▲2 |
| 22 | Kyler Murray | MIN | 46 | +0.01 | +2.9 | 17% | ▼2 |
| 23 | Tyler Shough | NO | 46 | +0.04 | -0.1 | 19% | ▲1 |
| 24 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 45 | -0.03 | -2.2 | 27% | ▲2 |
| 25 | Jacoby Brissett | ARI | 44 | -0.01 | +0.7 | 17% | ▼3 |
| 26 | Malik Willis | MIA | 42 | +0.01 | -6.9 | 24% | ▲6 |
| 27 | Bo Nix | DEN | 41 | -0.04 | -2.5 | 19% | ▲2 |
| 28 | Aaron Rodgers | PIT | 40 | -0.08 | -1.1 | 18% | – |
| 29 | Cam Ward | TEN | 40 | -0.11 | -0.9 | 21% | ▲1 |
| 30 | Baker Mayfield | TB | 39 | -0.17 | +0.5 | 22% | ▲4 |
| 31 | Jameis Winston | NYG | 37 | -0.08 | -7.5 | 22% | ▲2 |
| 32 | Jalon Daniels | TB | 36 | -0.11 | -6.6 | 22% | ▲3 |
| 33 | Daniel Jones | IND | 36 | -0.14 | -4.0 | 20% | ▼2 |
| 34 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 35 | -0.20 | -5.7 | 26% | ▲2 |
Index: 50 is average and every 10 points is one standard deviation. Change is against last week.
Expected points added per dropback (sacks and scrambles included), adjusted to the league's average pressure rate, makes up 70%. Completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which accounts for how hard each throw was, makes up 30%. Both are put on the same scale first. Qualifying: 15+ dropbacks a game and at least half the team's games.
Not yet included: DAL@PHI not finished.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play (EPA, CPOE); Pro Football Reference via nflverse (pressures). Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.