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SEACarolina at Green Bay: what decides it
CAR at GB, Thursday 8:15pm ET. Model GB 60%, market GB 62%.
Week 8, Thursday 8:15pm ET. Carolina visit Green Bay. The matchup numbers first, then the model and the market — understand the game before you bet on it.
How they have played so far
| CAR | GB | |
|---|---|---|
| Offence EPA/play | +0.06 (9th) | -0.00 (16th) |
| Defence EPA/play allowed | +0.02 (20th) | -0.06 (4th) |
| Offence success rate | 44% (15th) | 39% (28th) |
| Third-down conversion | 41% (15th) | 36% (28th) |
| Pressure rate allowed | 32% (32nd) | 24% (24th) |
| Pressure rate generated | 23% (15th) | 22% (20th) |
| Red-zone TD rate | 67% (10th) | 52% (30th) |
Season to date, weeks 1-7 (rank of 32 in brackets)
Where it gets decided
Green Bay's pass rush (20th in pressure generated) against a Carolina line ranked 32nd in pressure allowed is the matchup inside the matchup. Carolina's pass rush (15th in pressure generated) against a Green Bay line ranked 24th in pressure allowed is the matchup inside the matchup.
A caveat worth keeping: that's 7 games of evidence per team. Early-season ranks move a lot.
Matchups to watch
Tetairoa McMillan against Green Bay: the shot plays are there. Green Bay rank 22nd against deep balls, and 17% of McMillan's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%). Work the left side: 38% of his targets go that way and Green Bay rank 25th defending throws there.
Christian Watson against Carolina: best way in: intermediate throws. Carolina rank 20th against intermediate throws, which make up 32% of Watson's targets. Work the right side: 38% of his targets go that way and Carolina rank 23rd defending throws there.
These are the defence's profiles against each player's usual targets, not confirmed one-on-ones: free data doesn't show who covers whom.
The model and the market
The model has Green Bay at 60% (low confidence), with a line of GB by 5.7. The market agrees on the side at 62% (GB by 3.5). That's one input, not a tip: across 2026 the market has called more winners than we have, so read the matchup below before you lean either way.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play; PFR advanced passing; 4th & Data run 2026-10-28T09-15-33Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.