Seahawks at Patriots: week 22

Model pickNE 50%Low confidence

F&D score71out of 100

MarketSEA 68%draftkings, margin removed

vs market+17.6points, model minus market

Total42.0NE by 0.6

This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to NE. SEA have been hot lately, winning 5 of their last 5. NE have been rolling at home, winning 5 of their last 5.

Form and history

Injury report

Seahawksmodel impact 0.0

Tyrone BrodenWR	Out
Jacardia WrightRB	Out
Zach CharbonnetRB · Knee	Out
Shane LemieuxOL	Out
Cody WhiteWR · Groin	IR
Tory HortonWR · Shin	IR
Kenny McIntoshRB · Knee - ACL	IR
AJ FinleyDB · Knee	IR
Amari KightOT · Knee	Doubtful
Robbie OuztsRB · Neck	Questionable
Bryce CabeldueOT · Knee	Questionable

Patriotsmodel impact 0.0

Craig ReynoldsRB	Out
Thomas OdukoyaTE	Out
Darius HarrisLB	Out
Deneric PrinceRB	IR
Antonio GibsonRB · Knee - ACL	IR
Lan LarisonRB · Leg	IR
Terrell JenningsRB · Concussion	IR
Eric GregoryDT	IR
Jaquelin RoyDT	IR
Isaiah ItonDL · Hip	IR
Joshua FarmerDL · Hamstring	IR
Marcellas DialDB · Knee - ACL	IR

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player	Market	Line	Price	Market over	Hit rate
Drake MayeNE	Passing yards	224.5	1.90	–	30%
Sam DarnoldSEA	Passing yards	231.5	1.90	–	80%
Drake MayeNE	Passing TDs	1.5	2.15	–	20%
Sam DarnoldSEArole up	Passing TDs	1.5	1.84	–	60%
AJ BarnerSEA	Rushing yards	0.5	2.08	–	70%
Drake MayeNErole up	Rushing yards	35.5	1.90	–	30%
George HolaniSEA	Rushing yards	10.5	1.90	–	0%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEArole up	Rushing yards	0.5	3.33	–	50%
Kenneth Walker IIINE	Rushing yards	71.5	1.90	–	30%
Rashid ShaheedSEA	Rushing yards	4.5	1.95	–	20%
Rhamondre StevensonNE	Rushing yards	50.5	1.90	–	50%
Sam DarnoldSEArole up	Rushing yards	5.5	1.85	–	70%
TreVeyon HendersonNE	Rushing yards	18.5	1.91	–	75%
AJ BarnerSEA	Receiving yards	25.5	1.93	–	20%
Austin HooperNE	Receiving yards	8.5	1.89	–	90%
Cooper KuppSEArole up	Receiving yards	34.5	1.87	–	50%
DeMario DouglasNE	Receiving yards	10.5	1.91	–	100%
Elijah ArroyoSEA	Receiving yards	0.5	2.00	–	80%
Eric SaubertSEArole up	Receiving yards	0.5	2.75	–	80%
George HolaniSEA	Receiving yards	11.5	1.93	–	0%
Hunter HenryNErole up	Receiving yards	40.5	1.92	–	60%
Jack WestoverNE	Receiving yards	0.5	4.05	–	0%
Jake BoboSEArole up	Receiving yards	0.5	2.53	–	80%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEArole up	Receiving yards	92.5	1.88	–	30%
Kayshon BoutteNErole up	Receiving yards	29.5	1.88	–	60%
Kenneth Walker IIINE	Receiving yards	22.5	1.87	–	30%
Kyle WilliamsNE	Receiving yards	0.5	2.76	–	70%
Mack HollinsNErole up	Receiving yards	25.5	1.92	–	40%
Rashid ShaheedSEA	Receiving yards	21.5	1.88	–	70%
Rhamondre StevensonNE	Receiving yards	23.5	1.87	–	10%
Stefon DiggsNE	Receiving yards	44.5	1.91	–	60%
TreVeyon HendersonNE	Receiving yards	5.5	1.83	–	75%
AJ BarnerSEA	Receptions	2.5	1.61	–	30%
Austin HooperNErole up	Receptions	0.5	1.52	–	100%
Cooper KuppSEArole up	Receptions	3.5	2.14	–	50%
DeMario DouglasNE	Receptions	1.5	2.66	–	100%
Elijah ArroyoSEA	Receptions	0.5	1.71	–	90%
Eric SaubertSEArole up	Receptions	0.5	2.55	–	80%
George HolaniSEA	Receptions	1.5	1.70	–	0%
Hunter HenryNErole up	Receptions	3.5	1.80	–	80%

"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

SEA odds1.42

NE odds2.95

SEA fair odds1.48

NE fair odds3.08

Model vs marketNE +17.6

Kelly stake (capped)6.5%

Bookdraftkings

Rest0d

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.

What the model sees

Model favors NE (50%) by 0.6 points.