Skip to main content
4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15SEA53%DENSun 14:30HOUJAX64%Sun 18:00BAL71%CLESun 18:00CAR57%PHISun 18:00CHI53%ATLSun 18:00NONYG60%Sun 18:00NYJNE82%Sun 18:00PIT51%TBSun 18:00TENIND70%Sun 21:05ARILA69%Sun 21:25BUF70%LVSun 21:25LACKC87%Mon 01:20DAL53%GBTue 01:15WASSF85%
Dolphins
lost by 5
Final · week 4
10–15
at U.S. Bank Stadium · Sun 4 Oct
Vikings
won by 5

How the game swung

The Vikings' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 07:57: MIN score (0-3)Q2 07:13: MIN score (0-6)Q2 00:04: MIN score (0-9)Q3 11:58: MIA score (3-9)Q3 06:38: MIN score (3-12)Q3 00:15: MIA score (9-12)Q3 00:11: MIA score (10-12)Q4 06:43: MIN score (10-15)12MIN winning ↑MIA winning ↓
■ Vikings ahead■ Dolphins ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The plays that decided it

Q2 5:50 - Miami turnover by M.Willis (-10% WPA) flipped the script.

1
Q2 5:50 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
M.Willis EPA -4.7

(Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short left to 5-J.Wright. Minnesota challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis sacked at MIA 39 for -9 yards (15-D.Turner). FUMBLES (15-D.Turner), RECOVERED by MIN-51-B.Cashman at 50.

+10%win chance to MIN
2
Q4 10:08 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
A.Jones EPA +1.9

33-A.Jones up the middle to MIA 27 for 3 yards (9-J.Uche; 20-J.Brooks).

+5%win chance to MIN

Who won the matchups

Before the game we said where each player's edge was. Here's whether it happened.

Malik Washington won it

Washington won it: 67 yards on 5 targets, against his usual 26.

Profile
Targets5
Yards67
After the catch30
Yards on short throws49%
deep share of yards0%
Expected (his usual)11%
Jordan Addison won it

Addison won it: 52 yards on 6 targets, above his usual 42.

Profile
Targets6
Yards52
After the catch39
Yards on short throws12%
deep share of yards0%
Expected (his usual)4241%
Even

Even: Murray at -0.02 EPA a dropback, close to his usual +0.07.

Profile
epa db-0.016204670534432617
dropbacks41
Expected (his usual)7%

Every drive

Dolphins drive left to right, Vikings right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
Punt · 3 pl · 4 yds
Q1
Punt · 4 pl · 16 yds
Q1
FG · 5 pl · 19 yds
Q1
Punt · 8 pl · 31 yds
Q1
Punt · 6 pl · 6 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 6 yds
Q2
FG · 9 pl · 55 yds
Q2
Turnover · 3 pl · 10 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 2 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 13 yds
Q2
FG · 9 pl · 61 yds
Q3
FG · 6 pl · 60 yds
Q3
FG · 9 pl · 47 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 5 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · -2 yds
Q3
TD · 4 pl · 55 yds
Q3
FG · 14 pl · 60 yds
Q4
Punt · 3 pl · 2 yds
Q4
Half · 8 pl · 89 yds
MIA goal2040504020MIN goal

Side by side

198
Total yards
341
-0.20
EPA per play
-0.05
35%
Success rate
39%
8
First downs
19
2
Sacks taken
4
1
Turnovers
0
2/9
Third downs
8/17
Dolphins leaders
PassingM.Willis9/17 · 85 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
RushingO.Gordon9 car · 100 yds
ReceivingM.Washington5/5 · 67 yds
Vikings leaders
PassingK.Murray27/37 · 247 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
RushingA.Jones20 car · 94 yds
ReceivingT.Hockenson13/13 · 119 yds

Scoring

Q1 07:5716-W.Reichard 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.0-3
Q2 07:1316-W.Reichard 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.0-6
Q2 00:04(:04) 16-W.Reichard 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.0-9
Q3 11:5847-R.Patterson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.3-9
Q3 06:3816-W.Reichard 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.3-12
Q3 00:15(:15) 0-O.Gordon left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.9-12
Q3 00:1147-R.Patterson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.10-12
Q4 06:4316-W.Reichard 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.10-15

How the model did

Right

Before kickoff the model had MIN 69%, the market MIN 81%. It finished MIA 10, MIN 15.

Pick published 4 Oct, 10:11 UK, before kickoff.