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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15ATLGB70%Sun 18:00CAR64%CLESun 18:00CIN55%PITSun 18:00HOUIND53%Sun 18:00KC59%MIASun 18:00LACBUF83%Sun 18:00NEJAX69%Sun 18:00NYJDET53%Sun 18:00SEA71%WASSun 18:00TEN53%NYGSun 21:05ARISF67%Sun 21:05MIN52%TBSun 21:25BALDAL54%Sun 21:25LVNO57%Mon 01:20LA65%DENTue 01:15PHI52%CHI
Ravens
won by 18
Final · week 1
41–23
at Lucas Oil Stadium · Sun 13 Sept
Colts
lost by 18

How the game swung

The Colts' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 10:36: IND score (0-6)Q1 08:25: BAL score (6-6)Q1 08:20: BAL score (7-6)Q1 04:08: BAL score (13-6)Q1 04:05: BAL score (14-6)Q2 07:04: BAL score (20-6)Q2 06:54: BAL score (21-6)Q2 05:12: BAL score (27-6)Q2 05:04: BAL score (28-6)Q2 02:18: IND score (28-12)Q2 02:16: IND score (28-13)Q2 00:05: BAL score (31-13)Q3 08:00: IND score (31-16)Q4 12:50: BAL score (37-16)Q4 12:46: BAL score (38-16)Q4 10:32: IND score (38-22)Q4 10:26: IND score (38-23)Q4 04:13: BAL score (41-23)12345IND winning ↑BAL winning ↓
■ Colts ahead■ Ravens ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q1 7:38 - Indianapolis turnover by D.Jones (-16% WPA) sealed it.

1
Q1 7:38 · Turnover
D.Jones EPA -4.8

(Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle intended for 13-L.Treadwell INTERCEPTED by 0-R.Smith at IND 32. 0-R.Smith to IND 31 for 1 yard (2-J.Downs).

+16%win chance to BAL
2
Q2 12:07 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
L.Jackson EPA -3.1

(Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 6-J.Lane.

+4%win chance to IND
3
Q2 7:04 · Explosive play
L.Jackson EPA +5.0

(Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+6%win chance to BAL
4
Q2 6:47 · Turnover
D.Jones EPA -4.7

(Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 28-J.Taylor to IND 48 for 14 yards (44-M.Humphrey; 21-J.Hawkins). FUMBLES (44-M.Humphrey), RECOVERED by BAL-44-M.Humphrey at IND 47.

+4%win chance to BAL
5
Q2 4:34 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
L.Jackson EPA -6.3

8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 20 for -10 yards (sack split by 98-A.Key and 97-L.Latu). FUMBLES (98-A.Key) [98-A.Key], RECOVERED by IND-99-D.Buckner at BAL 15. 99-D.Buckner to BAL 15 for no gain (79-R.Stanley).

+4%win chance to IND

Every drive

Ravens drive left to right, Colts right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
TD · 9 pl · 65 yds
Q1
TD · 3 pl · 56 yds
Q1
Turnover · 2 pl · -2 yds
Q1
TD · 6 pl · 46 yds
Q1
Punt · 3 pl · 1 yds
Q1
Downs · 10 pl · 74 yds
Q2
Punt · 5 pl · 11 yds
Q2
TD · 5 pl · 76 yds
Q2
Turnover · 1 pl · 13 yds
Q2
TD · 3 pl · 47 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 0 yds
Q2
Turnover · 1 pl · -15 yds
Q2
TD · 4 pl · 15 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 5 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 9 yds
Q2
FG · 4 pl · 37 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 10 yds
Q3
FG · 8 pl · 45 yds
Q3
Punt · 5 pl · 37 yds
Q3
Punt · 5 pl · 36 yds
Q3
TD · 6 pl · 77 yds
Q4
TD · 6 pl · 63 yds
Q4
FG · 9 pl · 43 yds
Q4
Downs · 4 pl · -5 yds
Q4
Half · 2 pl · 16 yds
BAL goal2040504020IND goal

Side by side

509
Total yards
251
+0.32
EPA per play
-0.24
50%
Success rate
42%
23
First downs
16
2
Sacks taken
2
1
Turnovers
2
3/8
Third downs
3/10
Ravens leaders
PassingL.Jackson17/25 · 324 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
RushingD.Henry24 car · 144 yds
ReceivingZ.Flowers5/6 · 150 yds
Colts leaders
PassingD.Jones19/31 · 166 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT
RushingJ.Taylor19 car · 98 yds
ReceivingA.Pierce4/6 · 61 yds

Scoring

Q1 10:3628-J.Taylor right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.0-6
Q1 08:25(Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.6-6
Q1 08:2033-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.7-6
Q1 04:0822-D.Henry right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.13-6
Q1 04:0533-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.14-6
Q2 07:04(Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.20-6
Q2 06:5433-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.21-6
Q2 05:1222-D.Henry left tackle for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.27-6
Q2 05:0433-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.28-6
Q2 02:1828-J.Taylor right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.28-12
Q2 02:163-S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.28-13
Q2 00:05(:05) 33-T.Loop 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.31-13
Q3 08:003-S.Shrader 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.31-16
Q4 12:50(Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.37-16
Q4 12:4633-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.38-16
Q4 10:32(Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 84-T.Warren for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.38-22
Q4 10:263-S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.38-23
Q4 04:1333-T.Loop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.41-23

How the model did

Wrong

Before kickoff the model had IND 53%, the market BAL 61%. It finished BAL 41, IND 23.

Indianapolis ranks #10 in turnovers (4.4%) - weight turnover tendency higher for high-risk teams.

Pick published 13 Sept, 10:05 UK, before kickoff.