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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15ATLGB70%Sun 18:00CAR64%CLESun 18:00CIN55%PITSun 18:00HOUIND53%Sun 18:00KC59%MIASun 18:00LACBUF83%Sun 18:00NEJAX69%Sun 18:00NYJDET53%Sun 18:00SEA71%WASSun 18:00TEN53%NYGSun 21:05ARISF67%Sun 21:05MIN52%TBSun 21:25BALDAL54%Sun 21:25LVNO57%Mon 01:20LA65%DENTue 01:15PHI52%CHI
Colts
lost by 3
Final · week 2
30–33
at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Sun 20 Sept
Chiefs
won by 3

How the game swung

The Chiefs' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTQ1 08:28: IND score (6-0)Q1 08:25: IND score (7-0)Q1 06:13: KC score (7-3)Q1 04:40: KC score (7-9)Q1 04:34: KC score (7-10)Q2 14:52: IND score (10-10)Q2 09:50: IND score (13-10)Q2 02:28: KC score (13-16)Q2 02:25: KC score (13-17)Q2 01:04: IND score (19-17)Q2 00:59: IND score (20-17)Q3 08:06: KC score (20-23)Q3 08:01: KC score (20-24)Q4 14:18: KC score (20-27)Q4 05:41: IND score (26-27)Q4 05:37: IND score (27-27)Q5 05:13: KC score (27-30)Q5 03:15: IND score (30-30)Q5 00:01: KC score (30-33)12345KC winning ↑IND winning ↓
■ Chiefs ahead■ Colts ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q5 5:13 - Kansas City momentum-shifting play by H.Butker (+53% WPA) sealed it.

1
Q5 5:18 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
P.Mahomes EPA -0.8

(Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 9-K.Walker.

+25%win chance to IND
2
Q5 5:13 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
KC EPA +0.2

7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

+53%win chance to KC
3
Q5 3:15 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
IND EPA +0.5

3-S.Shrader 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

+49%win chance to IND
4
Q5 1:30 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
P.Mahomes EPA +1.6

15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 9-K.Walker to IND 24 for 22 yards (0-C.Bynum).

+36%win chance to KC
5
Q5 0:42 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
K.Walker EPA +0.1

(:42) (Shotgun) 64-H.Nourzad and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker left guard to IND 22 for 2 yards (97-L.Latu; 0-C.Bynum).

+26%win chance to KC

Every drive

Colts drive left to right, Chiefs right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
TD · 11 pl · 68 yds
Q1
FG · 5 pl · 36 yds
Q1
Turnover · 2 pl · 4 yds
Q1
TD · 2 pl · 16 yds
Q1
FG · 10 pl · 34 yds
Q2
Missed FG · 4 pl · 37 yds
Q2
FG · 5 pl · 12 yds
Q2
TD · 12 pl · 80 yds
Q2
TD · 6 pl · 49 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 0 yds
Q2
Half · 1 pl · 1 yds
Q3
TD · 14 pl · 80 yds
Q3
Punt · 4 pl · 21 yds
Q3
FG · 12 pl · 91 yds
Q4
TD · 13 pl · 59 yds
Q4
Punt · 5 pl · 16 yds
Q4
Punt · 7 pl · 31 yds
Q4
Half · 5 pl · 61 yds
Q5
FG · 10 pl · 60 yds
Q5
FG · 4 pl · 50 yds
Q5
FG · 6 pl · 46 yds
IND goal2040504020KC goal

Side by side

329
Total yards
523
+0.15
EPA per play
+0.23
48%
Success rate
55%
21
First downs
29
0
Sacks taken
2
1
Turnovers
0
5/12
Third downs
5/13
Colts leaders
PassingD.Jones22/31 · 210 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT
RushingJ.Taylor24 car · 92 yds
ReceivingJ.Downs7/9 · 72 yds
Chiefs leaders
PassingP.Mahomes32/47 · 382 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
RushingK.Walker24 car · 117 yds
ReceivingT.Kelce9/11 · 101 yds

Scoring

Q1 08:2817-D.Jones pass short middle to 84-T.Warren for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.6-0
Q1 08:253-S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.7-0
Q1 06:137-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.7-3
Q1 04:40(Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.7-9
Q1 04:347-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.7-10
Q2 14:523-S.Shrader 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.10-10
Q2 09:503-S.Shrader 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.13-10
Q2 02:28(Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.13-16
Q2 02:257-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.13-17
Q2 01:0428-J.Taylor right end for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.19-17
Q2 00:593-S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.20-17
Q3 08:0666-M.Caliendo and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 11-J.Royals for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.20-23
Q3 08:017-H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.20-24
Q4 14:187-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.20-27
Q4 05:4128-J.Taylor left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.26-27
Q4 05:373-S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.27-27
Q5 05:137-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.27-30
Q5 03:153-S.Shrader 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.30-30
Q5 00:01(:01) 7-H.Butker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.30-33

How the model did

Right

Before kickoff the model had KC 68%, the market KC 70%. It finished IND 30, KC 33.

Pick published 20 Sept, 16:01 UK, before kickoff.