PIT
CLE
ARI
NYG
DAL
HOU
GB
TB
JAX
CIN
LA
PHI
NE
BUF
NYJ
CHI
TEN
BAL
MIA
MIN
DEN
SF
KC
LV
LAC
SEA
DET
CAR
ATL
NO
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to WAS.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How WAS defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Washington rank 29th against short throws, which make up 76% of Warren's targets.
- Work the left side: 41% of his targets go that way and Washington rank 24th defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How IND defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Indianapolis rank 26th against intermediate throws, which make up 32% of McLaurin's targets.
- Work the left side: 58% of his targets go that way and Indianapolis rank 22nd defending throws there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 31st percentile for separation and 35th for hands, and Mekhi Blackmon and Jaylon Jones both allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How WAS defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Washington rank 32nd in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 29th against short throws.
- Pressure: Washington are 18th at getting sacks, and Indianapolis are 12th at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 3. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Colts have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)IND offenceWAS defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Colts offence has a 11-place edge.
When the Commanders have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)WAS offenceIND defenceBiggest gap: overall, where the Commanders offence has a 17-place edge.
Only 3 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.
Form and history
Colts this seasonCommanders this season17-16WAS at IND2022-10
Injury report
Coltsmodel impact 0.0| Alec PierceWR · Heel | IR |
| D.J. MontgomeryWR · Abdomen | IR |
| Will MalloryTE · Thumb | IR |
| Carson TowtTE | IR |
| Micheal ClemonsDL · Toe | IR |
| Cameron MitchellDB | IR |
| Ashton DulinWR · Ankle | Questionable |
Commandersmodel impact 0.0| Sam CosmiOL · Concussion | Out |
| Nick CrossDB | Out |
| Jeremy McNicholsRB · Quadriceps | IR |
| Deatrich WiseDE | PUP |
| Leo ChenalLB · Neck | IR |
| Jordan MageeLB · Hamstring | IR |
| Laremy TunsilOL · Triceps | IR |
| Jer'Zhan NewtonDL · Pectoral | IR |
| Trey AmosDB · Ankle | IR |
| Jayden DanielsQB · Elbow | Questionable |
| Chig OkonkwoTE · Hamstring | Questionable |
| Frankie LuvuLB · Groin | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
| Player | Market | Line | Price | Market over | Last 10 games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel JonesIND | Passing yards | 224.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 40% | |
| Marcus MariotaWAS | Passing yards | 212.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 0% | |
| Daniel JonesINDrole up | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.95 | 48% | 40% | |
| Marcus MariotaWAS | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 2.40 | 39% | 29% | |
| Daniel JonesIND | Rushing yards | 11.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 80% | |
| Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS | Rushing yards | 54.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 50% | |
| Jonathan TaylorINDrole up | Rushing yards | 89.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 70% | |
| Marcus MariotaWAS | Rushing yards | 28.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 43% | |
| Jonathan TaylorINDrole up | Receiving yards | 18.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 0% | |
| Josh DownsINDrole up | Receiving yards | 63.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 40% | |
| Keenan AllenINDrole up | Receiving yards | 34.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 70% | |
| Stefon DiggsWAS | Receiving yards | 42.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 60% | |
| Terry McLaurinWASrole up | Receiving yards | 53.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 70% | |
| Tyler WarrenIND | Receiving yards | 47.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 20% | |
| Jonathan TaylorIND | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.79 | 53% | 10% | |
| Josh DownsINDrole up | Receptions | 5.5 | 2.18 | 43% | 30% | |
| Keenan AllenINDrole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.76 | 54% | 80% | |
| Stefon DiggsWAS | Receptions | 4.5 | 2.26 | 42% | 80% | |
| Terry McLaurinWAS | Receptions | 4.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 60% | |
| Tyler WarrenIND | Receptions | 5.5 | 2.00 | 47% | 10% |
"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Split signal: win probability leans IND (51%) while the points model has WAS by 0.9 — low agreement, treat as a coin flip.