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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15SEA53%DENSun 14:30HOUJAX64%Sun 18:00BAL71%CLESun 18:00CAR57%PHISun 18:00CHI53%ATLSun 18:00NONYG60%Sun 18:00NYJNE82%Sun 18:00PIT51%TBSun 18:00TENIND70%Sun 21:05ARILA69%Sun 21:25BUF70%LVSun 21:25LACKC87%Mon 01:20DAL53%GBTue 01:15WASSF85%
Colts
won by 17
Final · week 4
30–13
at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · Sun 4 Oct
Commanders
lost by 17

How the game swung

The Commanders' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 13:01: WAS score (0-3)Q1 06:24: WAS score (0-6)Q2 03:29: IND score (6-6)Q2 03:23: IND score (7-6)Q2 00:03: IND score (10-6)Q3 12:48: IND score (16-6)Q3 12:45: IND score (17-6)Q3 10:47: WAS score (17-12)Q3 10:39: WAS score (17-13)Q3 07:07: IND score (20-13)Q4 11:44: IND score (26-13)Q4 11:38: IND score (27-13)Q4 05:52: IND score (30-13)12345WAS winning ↑IND winning ↓
■ Commanders ahead■ Colts ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q3 10:47 - Washington explosive play by A.Kaliakmanis (+13% WPA) flipped the script.

1
Q1 14:50 · Turnover
D.Jones EPA -5.3

(Shotgun) 17-D.Jones sacked at IND 24 for -8 yards (98-O.Oweh). FUMBLES (98-O.Oweh) [98-O.Oweh], touched at IND 24, RECOVERED by WAS-98-O.Oweh at IND 21.

+7%win chance to WAS
2
Q2 10:35 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
S.McGowan EPA +2.3

67-L.Tenuta reported in as eligible. 20-S.McGowan left guard to WAS 44 for 8 yards (2-A.Robertson; 45-K.Chaisson). WAS-2-A.Robertson was injured during the play.

+6%win chance to IND
3
Q2 8:34 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
C.Reynolds EPA -2.9

32-C.Reynolds up the middle to WAS 46 for no gain (94-J.Tillery; 57-J.Carlies).

+6%win chance to IND
4
Q3 14:17 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
A.Kaliakmanis EPA -3.4

(Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass short right intended for 14-A.Williams INTERCEPTED by 57-J.Carlies [95-A.Adebawore] at WAS 27. 57-J.Carlies pushed ob at WAS 20 for 7 yards (72-J.Conerly).

+6%win chance to IND
5
Q3 10:47 · Explosive play · nobody saw this coming
A.Kaliakmanis EPA +4.2

(Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass deep left to 13-T.Burks for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+13%win chance to WAS

Who won the matchups

Before the game we said where each player's edge was. Here's whether it happened.

Even

Even: Warren had 41 yards on 5 targets, close to his usual 42.

Profile
Targets5
Yards41
After the catch20
Yards on short throws71%
deep share of yards0%
Expected (his usual)4194%
Defence won it

Indianapolis won it: Diggs held to 35 yards on 9 targets, against his usual 61.

Profile
Targets9
Yards35
After the catch5
Yards on short throws100%
deep share of yards0%
Expected (his usual)6094%
Defence won it

Washington won it: Jones managed -0.37 EPA a dropback, well below his usual +0.08.

Profile
epa db-0.3709843863195579
dropbacks36
Expected (his usual)8%

Every drive

Colts drive left to right, Commanders right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
Turnover · 2 pl · -8 yds
Q1
FG · 3 pl · 8 yds
Q1
Punt · 3 pl · 7 yds
Q1
FG · 7 pl · 70 yds
Q1
Punt · 3 pl · 2 yds
Q1
Punt · 5 pl · 20 yds
Q1
Punt · 5 pl · 19 yds
Q1
Punt · 6 pl · 17 yds
Q2
Turnover · 7 pl · 17 yds
Q2
Downs · 4 pl · 9 yds
Q2
TD · 9 pl · 34 yds
Q2
Punt · 5 pl · 23 yds
Q2
FG · 7 pl · 51 yds
Q3
Turnover · 3 pl · -2 yds
Q3
TD · 4 pl · 20 yds
Q3
TD · 5 pl · 70 yds
Q3
FG · 6 pl · 32 yds
Q3
Punt · 4 pl · 40 yds
Q3
Punt · 4 pl · 12 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 7 yds
Q3
TD · 9 pl · 52 yds
Q4
Downs · 7 pl · 25 yds
Q4
FG · 4 pl · 20 yds
Q4
Downs · 9 pl · 30 yds
Q4
Half · 1 pl · 2 yds
IND goal2040504020WAS goal

Side by side

260
Total yards
317
-0.09
EPA per play
-0.25
42%
Success rate
28%
17
First downs
11
2
Sacks taken
2
2
Turnovers
1
5/15
Third downs
2/15
Colts leaders
PassingD.Jones19/34 · 143 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT
RushingJ.Taylor20 car · 95 yds
ReceivingL.Treadwell5/6 · 42 yds
Commanders leaders
PassingA.Kaliakmanis15/33 · 186 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT
RushingM.Mariota1 car · 35 yds
ReceivingD.Brown3/4 · 65 yds

Scoring

Q1 13:0119-D.Stevens 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.0-3
Q1 06:2419-D.Stevens 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.0-6
Q2 03:2967-L.Tenuta reported in as eligible. 28-J.Taylor left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.6-6
Q2 03:233-S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.7-6
Q2 00:03(:03) 3-S.Shrader 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.10-6
Q3 12:4828-J.Taylor right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.16-6
Q3 12:453-S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.17-6
Q3 10:47(Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass deep left to 13-T.Burks for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.17-12
Q3 10:3919-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.17-13
Q3 07:073-S.Shrader 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.20-13
Q4 11:44(Shotgun) 17-D.Jones right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.26-13
Q4 11:383-S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.27-13
Q4 05:523-S.Shrader 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.30-13

How the model did

Wrong

Before kickoff the model had WAS 50%, the market IND 64%. It finished IND 30, WAS 13.

Indianapolis ranks #7 in turnovers (4.1%) - weight turnover tendency higher for high-risk teams.

Pick published 4 Oct, 10:11 UK, before kickoff.