SEA
DEN
HOU
JAX
BAL
CLE
CAR
PHI
CHI
ATL
NO
NYG
NYJ
NE
PIT
TB
ARI
LA
BUF
LV
LAC
KC
DAL
GB
WAS
SF
IND look like a strong play here. TEN have struggled recently, losing 5 of their last 5.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How IND defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Indianapolis rank 21st against short throws, which make up 71% of Robinson's targets.
- Work the middle: 24% of his targets go that way and Indianapolis rank 23rd defending throws there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 77th percentile for separation and 38th for hands, and Mekhi Blackmon allows fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How TEN defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Tennessee rank 32nd against intermediate throws, which make up 23% of Warren's targets.
- Work the left side: 39% of his targets go that way and Tennessee rank 26th defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How TEN defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Tennessee rank 29th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 32nd against intermediate throws.
- Pressure: Tennessee are 6th at getting sacks, and Indianapolis are 10th at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 5. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Titans have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)TEN offenceIND defenceBiggest gap: third down, where the Colts defence has a 21-place edge.
When the Colts have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)IND offenceTEN defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Colts offence has a 14-place edge.
Form and history
Titans this seasonColts this season14-38TEN at IND2025-10
41-20IND at TEN2025-09
30-38TEN at IND2024-12
20-17IND at TEN2024-10
31-28IND at TEN2023-12
Injury report
Titansmodel impact 0.0| Jaren KanakTE · Pectoral | IR |
| Joshua WilliamsCB · Pectoral | IR |
| Jaylen HarrellDE · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Tanoh KpassagnonDE | IR |
| Dorian MausiLB | IR |
| Milo EiflerLB | IR |
| Jackson SlaterOL · Foot | IR |
| Fernando CarmonaG · Ankle | IR |
| Kendell BrooksDB | IR |
| Kevin WinstonDB · Quadriceps | Doubtful |
| Tyjae SpearsRB · Knee | Questionable |
| Donnie ErnsbergerTE | Questionable |
Coltsmodel impact 0.0| Alec PierceWR · Heel | IR |
| D.J. MontgomeryWR · Abdomen | IR |
| Will MalloryTE · Thumb | IR |
| Carson TowtTE | IR |
| Arden KeyDE · Hamstring | IR |
| Micheal ClemonsDL · Toe | IR |
| Cameron MitchellDB | IR |
| Josh DownsWR · Hamstring | Questionable |
| Ashton DulinWR · Hamstring | Questionable |
| Matt GoncalvesOL · Concussion | Questionable |
| Jalen TravisOT · Ankle | Questionable |
| Jaylon CarliesDB · Ribs | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors IND (70%) by 5.2 points.