ATL
CAR
CLE
CIN
PIT
HOU
IND
KC
MIA
LAC
BUF
NE
JAX
NYJ
DET
SEA
WAS
TEN
NYG
ARI
SF
TB
BAL
DAL
LV
NO
LA
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PHI
CHI
How the game swung
The Vikings' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.
The five plays that decided it
Q4 5:01 - Green Bay turnover by J.Love (-15% WPA) sealed it.
(Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right intended for 14-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon [44-Z.Franklin] at GB 36. 25-K.Nixon to GB 47 for 11 yards (87-T.Hockenson).
(Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-2-I.Rodgers was injured during the play.
10-J.Love right guard to MIN 17 for no gain (97-D.Orange). (Virtual Measurement).
(Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at GB 11 for -12 yards (sack split by 43-A.Van Ginkel and 51-B.Cashman). FUMBLES (43-A.Van Ginkel) [51-B.Cashman], RECOVERED by MIN-43-A.Van Ginkel at GB 8. 43-A.Van Ginkel to GB 1 for 7 yards (50-Z.Bako-Bewele).
(No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle intended for 9-C.Watson INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Pierre (22-H.Smith) at GB 42. 23-J.Pierre pushed ob at GB 14 for 28 yards (10-J.Love).
Every drive
Packers drive left to right, Vikings right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.
Turnover · 2 pl · -1 ydsFG · 5 pl · 17 ydsPunt · 6 pl · 25 ydsTD · 2 pl · 81 ydsFG · 11 pl · 35 ydsFG · 6 pl · 20 ydsPunt · 6 pl · 12 ydsPunt · 4 pl · 37 ydsPunt · 3 pl · 1 ydsPunt · 3 pl · 0 ydsTD · 7 pl · 65 ydsTD · 7 pl · 74 ydsHalf · 0 pl · 0 ydsPunt · 5 pl · 24 ydsPunt · 3 pl · 4 ydsFG · 11 pl · 79 ydsTD · 6 pl · 28 ydsDowns · 8 pl · 49 ydsTD · 10 pl · 57 ydsTurnover · 3 pl · -22 ydsTD · 1 pl · 1 ydsTurnover · 2 pl · 7 ydsTD · 3 pl · 14 ydsDowns · 11 pl · 53 ydsHalf · 1 pl · 3 ydsSide by side
Packers leadersVikings leadersScoring
| Q1 12:16 | | 28-T.Smack 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. | 3-0 |
| Q1 07:54 | | (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-2-I.Rodgers was injured during the play. | 9-0 |
| Q1 01:42 | | 16-W.Reichard 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson. | 9-3 |
| Q2 13:56 | | 28-T.Smack 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. | 12-3 |
| Q2 02:02 | | (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-90-L.Van Ness, Defensive Offside, declined. | 12-9 |
| Q2 01:55 | | 16-W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson. | 12-10 |
| Q2 00:18 | | (:18) 10-J.Love pass short right to 9-C.Watson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 18-10 |
| Q2 00:14 | | 28-T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. | 19-10 |
| Q3 05:12 | | 28-T.Smack 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. | 22-10 |
| Q3 02:11 | | (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 87-T.Hockenson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 22-16 |
| Q3 02:08 | | 16-W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson. | 22-17 |
| Q4 06:42 | | 33-A.Jones left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 22-23 |
| Q4 06:37 | | TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 11-C.Wentz pass to 18-J.Jefferson is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. | 22-25 |
| Q4 04:52 | | 27-J.Mason right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-99-B.Sorrell, Defensive Offside, declined. | 22-31 |
| Q4 04:48 | | 16-W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson. | 22-32 |
| Q4 04:03 | | 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 22-38 |
| Q4 03:55 | | 16-W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson. | 22-39 |
How the model did
Before kickoff the model had GB 64%, the market MIN 54%. It finished GB 22, MIN 39.
Green Bay ranks #4 in explosive plays (10.4%) - consider explosive variance in margin predictions.
Pick published 13 Sept, 10:05 UK, before kickoff.