SEA
DEN
HOU
JAX
BAL
CLE
CHI
ATL
NO
NYG
NYJ
NE
PIT
TB
TEN
IND
ARI
LA
BUF
LV
LAC
KC
DAL
GB
WAS
SF
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to CAR.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How PHI defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Philadelphia rank 18th against intermediate throws, which make up 34% of McMillan's targets.
- Don't force short throws: they've been McMillan's worst return (-0.14 EPA a target), and Philadelphia are 6th there.
- Work the left side: 40% of his targets go that way and Philadelphia rank 24th defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How CAR defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Carolina rank 28th against intermediate throws, which make up 18% of Goedert's targets.
- Work the left side: 33% of his targets go that way and Carolina rank 30th defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How CAR defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Carolina rank 25th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 28th against intermediate throws.
- Pressure: Carolina are 19th at getting sacks, and Philadelphia are 12th at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 5. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Panthers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)CAR offencePHI defenceBiggest gap: passing, where the Panthers offence has a 18-place edge.
When the Eagles have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)PHI offenceCAR defenceBiggest gap: overall, where the Panthers defence has a 9-place edge.
Form and history
Panthers this season
Eagles this season16-22CAR at PHI2024-12
21-18PHI at CAR2021-10
Injury report
Panthersmodel impact 0.0| Chris BrazzellWR · Knee | IR |
| Xavier LegetteWR · Knee | IR |
| Trevor EtienneRB · Ankle | IR |
| Jonathon BrooksRB · Abdomen | IR |
| Mike JacksonCB · Groin | IR |
| Jaycee HornCB · Quadriceps | IR |
| Bam Martin-ScottLB · Hamstring | IR |
| Tershawn WhartonDT · Neck | PUP |
| Cam JacksonDT · Knee | IR |
| Taylor MotonT · Illness | PUP |
| Ikem EkwonuT · Knee | PUP |
| Brady ChristensenT · Hamstring | IR |
Eaglesmodel impact -0.7| Uar BernardDT | Out |
| Johnny WilsonWR · Knee | IR |
| Tank BigsbyRB · Abdomen | IR |
| Grant CalcaterraTE · Back | IR |
| Eli StowersTE · Hamstring | IR |
| Landon DickersonOL · Knee | IR |
| Jakorian BennettDB · Knee | IR |
| Andre' SamDB · Foot | IR |
| Tucker LargeDB | PUP |
| Will ShipleyRB · Foot | Doubtful |
| Jalyx HuntDL · Ankle | Doubtful |
| Dontayvion WicksWR · Hamstring | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
| Player | Market | Line | Price | Market over | Last 10 games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce YoungCARrole up | Passing yards | 239.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 30% | |
| Jalen HurtsPHI | Passing yards | 207.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 40% | |
| Bryce YoungCAR | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 2.40 | 39% | 40% | |
| Jalen HurtsPHI | Passing TDs | 0.5 | 1.37 | 69% | 70% | |
| Bryce YoungCARrole up | Rushing yards | 10.5 | 1.85 | 51% | 70% | |
| Chuba HubbardCAR | Rushing yards | 69.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 50% | |
| Chuba HubbardCAR | Receiving yards | 16.5 | 1.85 | 51% | 10% | |
| Darren WallerCAR | Receiving yards | 27.5 | 1.89 | 50% | 70% | |
| Jalen CokerCAR | Receiving yards | 55.5 | 1.92 | 49% | 40% | |
| Tetairoa McMillanCAR | Receiving yards | 65.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 20% | |
| Chuba HubbardCAR | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.82 | 52% | 50% | |
| Darren WallerCAR | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.69 | 56% | 80% | |
| Jalen CokerCARrole up | Receptions | 4.5 | 1.69 | 56% | 10% | |
| Tetairoa McMillanCAR | Receptions | 5.5 | 2.14 | 44% | 0% |
"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors CAR (57%) by 1.3 points.