PIT
CLE
IND
WAS
DAL
HOU
GB
TB
JAX
CIN
LA
PHI
NE
BUF
NYJ
CHI
TEN
BAL
MIA
MIN
DEN
SF
KC
LV
LAC
SEA
DET
CAR
ATL
NO
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to NYG.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How NYG defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- the Giants rank 19th against intermediate throws, which make up 21% of McBride's targets.
- Work the middle: 22% of his targets go that way and the Giants rank 23rd defending throws there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 17th percentile for separation and 77th for hands, and Andru Phillips, Cordale Flott and Deonte Banks all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How ARI defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Arizona rank 30th against short throws, which make up 55% of Nabers's targets.
- Work the right side: 39% of his targets go that way and Arizona rank 30th defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How ARI defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Arizona rank 29th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 30th against short throws.
- Pressure: Arizona are 28th at getting sacks, and the Giants are 27th at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 3. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Cardinals have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)ARI offenceNYG defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Cardinals offence has a 25-place edge.
When the Giants have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)NYG offenceARI defenceBiggest gap: third down, where the Giants offence has a 12-place edge.
Only 3 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.
Form and history
Cardinals this seasonGiants this season31-28NYG at ARI2023-09
Injury report
Cardinalsmodel impact 0.0| Trey BensonRB · Knee | IR |
| James ConnerRB · Foot | IR |
| Tip ReimanTE · Ankle | PUP |
| Jameson GeersTE | IR |
| Kaleb ProctorDT · Knee - Meniscus | IR |
| Will JohnsonDB · Neck | IR |
| Chase BisontisG · Knee - MCL | IR |
| Zach CarterDL · Knee | IR |
| Joey BlountDB | IR |
| Kitan CrawfordDB · Ankle | IR |
| Dadrion Taylor-DemersonDB · Back | Questionable |
Giantsmodel impact 0.0| Jaxson DartQB · Knee - Meniscus | IR |
| Calvin AustinWR · Knee | IR |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR · Achilles | IR |
| Thaddeus DixonCB · Achilles | IR |
| Jarrick Bernard-ConverseCB · Knee | IR |
| Korie BlackCB | IR |
| Paulson AdeboCB · Knee | IR |
| Roy Robertson-HarrisDE · Achilles | IR |
| Brian BurnsDE · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Deonte BanksDB · Calf | Questionable |
| Tyler NubinDB · Calf | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors NYG (53%) by 2.3 points.