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Cardinals
lost by 12
Final · week 4
24–36
at MetLife Stadium · Sun 4 Oct
Giants
won by 12

How the game swung

The Giants' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 11:12: ARI score (6-0)Q1 11:08: ARI score (7-0)Q1 06:40: NYG score (7-3)Q1 03:12: ARI score (13-3)Q1 03:05: ARI score (14-3)Q2 15:00: NYG score (14-6)Q2 04:36: NYG score (14-12)Q2 02:28: NYG score (14-18)Q2 02:24: NYG score (14-19)Q2 00:02: ARI score (17-19)Q3 07:24: ARI score (23-19)Q3 07:20: ARI score (24-19)Q3 01:48: NYG score (24-25)Q3 01:44: NYG score (24-27)Q4 02:16: NYG score (24-30)Q4 00:11: ARI score (24-36)12345NYG winning ↑ARI winning ↓
■ Giants ahead■ Cardinals ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q2 3:15 - Arizona turnover by J.Brissett (-22% WPA) flipped the script.

1
Q2 4:36 · Other · nobody saw this coming
J.Winston EPA +2.8

(Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 88-M.Fields for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+14%win chance to NYG
2
Q2 3:15 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
J.Brissett EPA -4.7

(Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 52-A.Reese (93-S.Harris) at ARI 34. 52-A.Reese to ARI 26 for 8 yards (74-I.Adams).

+22%win chance to NYG
3
Q3 12:40 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
J.Winston EPA -2.8

(Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 9-I.Likely INTERCEPTED by 3-B.Baker at NYG 42. 3-B.Baker pushed ob at NYG 20 for 22 yards (19-J.Winston). PENALTY on ARI-31-W.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 27.

+15%win chance to ARI
4
Q3 5:47 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
J.Winston EPA +4.3

(Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep left to 88-M.Fields pushed ob at ARI 18 for 40 yards (31-W.Williams).

+20%win chance to NYG
5
Q4 0:11 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
J.Brissett EPA -9.6

(:11) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Banks at NYG 2. 2-D.Banks for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+22%win chance to NYG

Who won the matchups

Before the game we said where each player's edge was. Here's whether it happened.

Defence won it

the Giants won it: McBride held to 31 yards on 12 targets, against his usual 75.

Profile
Targets12
Yards31
After the catch15
Yards on short throws100%
deep share of yards0%
Expected (his usual)7459%
Malik Nabers won it

Nabers won it: 112 yards on 7 targets, above his usual 67.

Profile
Targets7
Yards112
After the catch7
Yards on short throws18%
deep share of yards82%
Expected (his usual)6729%
Jameis Winston won it

Winston won it: +0.11 EPA a dropback, above his usual -0.07.

Profile
epa db0.11422090760396658
dropbacks34
Expected (his usual)-7%

Every drive

Cardinals drive left to right, Giants right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
TD · 8 pl · 58 yds
Q1
FG · 9 pl · 56 yds
Q1
TD · 6 pl · 74 yds
Q1
FG · 5 pl · 13 yds
Q2
Turnover · 2 pl · -3 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 5 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 4 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 7 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 2 yds
Q2
TD · 8 pl · 41 yds
Q2
Turnover · 3 pl · 8 yds
Q2
TD · 2 pl · 26 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · -16 yds
Q2
Turnover · 4 pl · 14 yds
Q2
FG · 3 pl · 33 yds
Q3
Turnover · 3 pl · 7 yds
Q3
TD · 10 pl · 35 yds
Q3
TD · 10 pl · 78 yds
Q3
Punt · 4 pl · 19 yds
Q4
Turnover · 5 pl · 42 yds
Q4
Punt · 3 pl · 3 yds
Q4
Punt · 5 pl · 16 yds
Q4
Punt · 3 pl · 8 yds
Q4
FG · 6 pl · 16 yds
Q4
Def TD · 12 pl · 45 yds
ARI goal2040504020NYG goal

Side by side

270
Total yards
321
-0.25
EPA per play
-0.08
44%
Success rate
32%
17
First downs
14
2
Sacks taken
4
3
Turnovers
3
4/12
Third downs
7/15
Cardinals leaders
PassingJ.Brissett21/35 · 166 yds · 2 TD · 3 INT
RushingJ.Love14 car · 63 yds
ReceivingMi.Wilson7/13 · 95 yds
Giants leaders
PassingJ.Winston18/29 · 250 yds · 3 TD · 2 INT
RushingC.Skattebo18 car · 58 yds
ReceivingM.Nabers6/7 · 112 yds

Scoring

Q1 11:127-J.Brissett pass short left to 18-M.Harrison for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.6-0
Q1 11:0838-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.7-0
Q1 06:4034-D.Zvada 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.7-3
Q1 03:1222-T.Allgeier left tackle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.13-3
Q1 03:0538-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.14-3
Q2 15:0034-D.Zvada 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.14-6
Q2 04:36(Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 88-M.Fields for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.14-12
Q2 02:28(Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep middle to 1-M.Nabers for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-D.Stills].14-18
Q2 02:2434-D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.14-19
Q2 00:02(:02) 38-C.Ryland 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.17-19
Q3 07:247-J.Brissett pass short middle to 84-E.Higgins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.23-19
Q3 07:2038-C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.24-19
Q3 01:48(Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 84-T.Johnson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.24-25
Q3 01:44TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 23-N.Harris rushes left end. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.24-27
Q4 02:1634-D.Zvada 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.24-30
Q4 00:11(:11) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Banks at NYG 2. 2-D.Banks for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.24-36

How the model did

Right

Before kickoff the model had NYG 51%, the market ARI 55%. It finished ARI 24, NYG 36.

Pick published 4 Oct, 10:11 UK, before kickoff.