PIT
CLE
IND
WAS
ARI
NYG
DAL
HOU
GB
TB
JAX
CIN
NE
BUF
NYJ
CHI
TEN
BAL
MIA
MIN
DEN
SF
KC
LV
LAC
SEA
DET
CAR
ATL
NO
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to LA.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How PHI defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Philadelphia are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Adams's likeliest route is intermediate throws (39% of his targets), where they rank 11th.
- Don't force short throws: they've been Adams's worst return (-0.04 EPA a target), and Philadelphia are 5th there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 7th percentile for separation and 63rd for hands, and Quinyon Mitchell and Adoree' Jackson both allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How LA defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- the Rams are top ten against short, intermediate and deep throws over their last 17 games (9th, 8th, 3rd). There's no obvious soft spot for Smith to lean on.
- Don't force short throws: they've been Smith's worst return (-0.01 EPA a target), and the Rams are 9th there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 3. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Rams have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)LA offencePHI defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Rams offence has a 21-place edge.
When the Eagles have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)PHI offenceLA defenceBiggest gap: passing, where the Rams defence has a 19-place edge.
Only 3 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.
Form and history
Rams this seasonEagles this season26-33LA at PHI2025-09
22-28LA at PHI2025-01
37-20PHI at LA2024-11
23-14PHI at LA2023-10
Injury report
Ramsmodel impact 0.0No players on the injury report.
Eaglesmodel impact 0.0| Cole PaytonQB · Coach's Decision | Out |
| Tanner McKeeQB · Coach's Decision | Out |
| A.J. EpenesaDE · Coach's Decision | Out |
| Johnny WilsonWR · Knee | IR |
| Grant CalcaterraTE · Back | IR |
| Eli StowersTE · Hamstring | IR |
| Landon DickersonOL · Knee | IR |
| Jakorian BennettDB · Knee | IR |
| Andre' SamDB · Foot | IR |
| Tucker LargeDB | PUP |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Knee - MCL | Doubtful |
| Marquise BrownWR · Ankle | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors LA (59%) by 4.6 points.