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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15SEA53%DENSun 14:30HOUJAX64%Sun 18:00BAL71%CLESun 18:00CAR57%PHISun 18:00CHI53%ATLSun 18:00NONYG60%Sun 18:00NYJNE82%Sun 18:00PIT51%TBSun 18:00TENIND70%Sun 21:05ARILA69%Sun 21:25BUF70%LVSun 21:25LACKC87%Mon 01:20DAL53%GBTue 01:15WASSF85%
Rams
won by 4
Final · week 4
24–20
at Lincoln Financial Field · Sun 4 Oct
Eagles
lost by 4

How the game swung

The Eagles' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 08:42: PHI score (0-3)Q1 02:12: LA score (3-3)Q2 11:02: PHI score (3-6)Q2 05:51: PHI score (3-12)Q2 05:44: PHI score (3-13)Q2 02:00: LA score (9-13)Q2 01:55: LA score (10-13)Q2 00:09: PHI score (10-19)Q2 00:03: PHI score (10-20)Q4 04:02: LA score (16-20)Q4 03:59: LA score (17-20)Q4 01:17: LA score (23-20)Q4 01:10: LA score (24-20)12345PHI winning ↑LA winning ↓
■ Eagles ahead■ Rams ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q4 1:17 - LA Rams momentum-shifting play by K.Williams (+16% WPA) sealed it.

1
Q1 12:03 · Turnover
M.Stafford EPA -5.9

9-M.Stafford pass deep right intended for 4-K.Mumpfield INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Mukuba at LA 49. 24-A.Mukuba pushed ob at LA 28 for 21 yards (77-A.Jackson).

+15%win chance to PHI
2
Q2 14:53 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
J.Hurts EPA +3.1

(Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 9-M.Lemon to LA 34 for 13 yards (5-K.Kinchens).

+12%win chance to PHI
3
Q2 0:34 · Turnover
M.Stafford EPA -2.5

(:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right intended for 12-P.Nacua INTERCEPTED by 33-C.DeJean (35-M.Carter) at PHI 40. 33-C.DeJean to LA 35 for 25 yards (23-K.Williams).

+12%win chance to PHI
4
Q3 1:07 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
J.Hurts EPA -3.4

61-W.Lampkin reported in as eligible. 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 38 for no gain (53-N.Landman).

+6%win chance to LA
5
Q4 1:17 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
K.Williams EPA +3.1

23-K.Williams left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+16%win chance to LA

Who won the matchups

Before the game we said where each player's edge was. Here's whether it happened.

Defence won it

Philadelphia won it: Adams held to 32 yards on 9 targets, against his usual 67.

Profile
Targets9
Yards32
After the catch1
Yards on short throws31%
deep share of yards0%
Expected (his usual)6747%
Defence won it

the Rams won it: Ertz held to 13 yards on 4 targets, against his usual 38.

Profile
Targets4
Yards13
After the catch3
Yards on short throws100%
deep share of yards0%
Expected (his usual)3771%

Every drive

Rams drive left to right, Eagles right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
Punt · 3 pl · 4 yds
Q1
Turnover · 3 pl · 10 yds
Q1
FG · 5 pl · 17 yds
Q1
FG · 12 pl · 68 yds
Q1
FG · 11 pl · 39 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 8 yds
Q2
Punt · 4 pl · 8 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 0 yds
Q2
TD · 2 pl · 17 yds
Q2
TD · 9 pl · 67 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 5 yds
Q2
Turnover · 2 pl · 2 yds
Q2
TD · 2 pl · 10 yds
Q2
Half · 0 pl · 0 yds
Q3
Punt · 5 pl · 19 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 5 yds
Q3
Missed FG · 9 pl · 31 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 5 yds
Q3
Punt · 6 pl · 34 yds
Q3
Downs · 4 pl · 9 yds
Q3
Downs · 4 pl · 17 yds
Q4
Downs · 11 pl · 62 yds
Q4
TD · 10 pl · 85 yds
Q4
Punt · 3 pl · 6 yds
Q4
TD · 10 pl · 75 yds
Q4
Downs · 4 pl · -15 yds
Q4
Half · 0 pl · 0 yds
LA goal2040504020PHI goal

Side by side

416
Total yards
172
+0.06
EPA per play
-0.29
50%
Success rate
33%
24
First downs
11
1
Sacks taken
4
2
Turnovers
0
7/16
Third downs
0/12
Rams leaders
PassingM.Stafford32/51 · 317 yds · 0 TD · 2 INT
RushingK.Williams16 car · 80 yds
ReceivingP.Nacua9/12 · 125 yds
Eagles leaders
PassingJ.Hurts12/27 · 93 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
RushingT.Bigsby14 car · 55 yds
ReceivingD.Cooper3/7 · 33 yds

Scoring

Q1 08:424-J.Elliott 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.0-3
Q1 02:1292-H.Mevis 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.3-3
Q2 11:024-J.Elliott 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.3-6
Q2 05:51(Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 80-D.Cooper for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.3-12
Q2 05:444-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.3-13
Q2 02:0012-P.Nacua left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.9-13
Q2 01:5592-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.10-13
Q2 00:09(:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 80-D.Cooper for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-22-T.McDuffie, Illegal Contact, declined.10-19
Q2 00:034-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.10-20
Q4 04:0223-K.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.16-20
Q4 03:5992-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.17-20
Q4 01:1723-K.Williams left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.23-20
Q4 01:1092-H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.24-20

How the model did

Right

Before kickoff the model had LA 58%, the market LA 62%. It finished LA 24, PHI 20.

Pick published 4 Oct, 10:11 UK, before kickoff.